109 
FXUS64 KMEG 061741
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.UPDATE...

See the 18Z aviation discussion below. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1009 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Another nice afternoon is in
store for the region with dry weather and temperatures reaching
the mid to upper 80s. No update is needed.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

Another pleasant night is occurring across the Mid-South with cool 
temperatures and low humidity as SFC high pressure remains over 
the region. 

Expect almost a repeat of yesterday to occur today as the SFC high
remains over the Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the 80s.

The SFC high will begin to shift to the Northeast on Friday as an
upper ridge over the Southern Plains begins to move east. Winds
will begin to turn around to the south by Saturday morning
allowing for humidity levels and temperatures to begin increasing
across the area.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to occur over the Mid-South
during the weekend into Monday as the upper ridge builds over the
area. The GFS remains wet compared to the other models as it is
not as strong with the ridge. Have continued to lean toward the
ECMWF in regards to temperatures and no POPS. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will begin to creep above 100
degrees by Sunday.

Models show the ridge retreating back to the southwest by Monday
afternoon. As a result, chances for diurnal convection will occur
Monday afternoon. In addition, the Mid-South will return to weak 
northwest flow aloft. Thus, shortwaves moving through the flow 
could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms 
during the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. Temperatures may
cool slightly due to the convection with highs expected to be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

VFR through the period. FL050 cu field this afternoon, diminishing
around sunset. Light NE winds overnight, shifting easterly 
tomorrow morning. Light fog is possible at MKL and TUP for a brief
hour or two near sunrise. Not confident enough to add to TAF at 
this point as light winds and high cirrus may offset potential. 

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$