734 
FXUS63 KFGF 061129
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Patchy fog has been reported across the southern Devils Lake Basin
southward to the South Dakota border and areas to the west.
Additionally, a stratus deck has worked into the southeastern
portions of the region roughly along the I-94 corridor. Otherwise,
clear to partly cloudy skies prevail this morning, with
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Low stratus is overspreading the southern Red River Valley this 
morning, as well as portions of the I-94 corridor southeast of 
Fargo. Elsewhere, clear skies prevail with temperatures in the upper 
50s to lower 60s. Patchy fog is possible this morning west of the 
Red River, otherwise, quiet weather is expected today with little to 
no weather related impacts. Our next chance for weather impacts will 
occur Friday afternoon, evening, and possibly overnight in 
association with strong to severe thunderstorms.

Looking into tonight and Friday, quiet weather continues into the 
overnight hours across much of the region. Look for an increase in 
PoPs mainly south of I-94 during the morning hours as scattered 
thunderstorms are possible. An upper low will lift a warm front 
northward through the early afternoon hours, with thunderstorm 
activity possible. Ensemble mean solutions for CAPE are in the 2500 
to 3500 J/Kg range, with modest deep layer shear. Initially, 
supercells or hybrid clusters could be possible during the early 
afternoon hours, transitioning to clusters or line segments as we 
head into the evening. This will occur along a theta-e gradient 
boundary ahead of an approaching cold front. Risks will initially 
include large hail and isolated tornadoes, then transition to more 
of a wind threat, along with a very low tornado chance.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

For Friday night, from forecast continuity, expect strong to severe 
thunderstorms to be either ongoing, or moving into the FA from the 
west. However, this scenario is still not set in stone. The GFS and 
Canadian show a lead impulse out ahead of the above mentioned 
solution, with could either favor a lower severe potential or an 
even sooner starting one. Even some HREF members show some weird 
convective elements earlier in the day Friday. So details on this 
event are still somewhat uncertain.

In the wake of this system, Saturday should be dry with near normal 
temperatures. Models seem to be in better agreement on another short 
wave and precipitation event on Sunday. The 500mb flow turns more 
zonal for Monday and Tuesday, so think it should remain mainly dry 
then. As another wave crashes into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, 
it should bring a return to southwest flow. However, at this point, 
there are no impulses moving into the Northern Plains Wednesday, 
with highs remaining near or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Patchy fog will enable LIFR conditions periodically at KDVL
through around 15Z and at KBJI through around 13Z. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are observed with SKC to FEW cloud groups through the
day. Calm weather and VFR CIGs are expected through early Friday
morning, when low stratus could begin to work into the area in 
association with a pre-frontal trough.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Lynch