324 FXUS62 KTAE 060527 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 127 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms. Storms will be most likely at VLD and DHN later this afternoon, with widely scattered storms elsewhere. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1010 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]... A near record dry mid to upper level environment is expected to keep convective coverage isolated to scattered today in what would otherwise be a more favorable regime for widespread convection. Weak and broad upper level troughing is in place west of the area with 1000-700 mb winds light out of the south today. WPC also analyzes a weak surface boundary across the forecast area. The 12z KTAE sounding came in with a 500 mb dewpoint of -53.3C and a 300 mb dewpoint of -73.1C. The record dry KTAE sounding dewpoint values for August are -55.1C at 500 mb and -73.9C at 300 mb. Given the dry air aloft, DCAPE values will be fairly high this afternoon, so we'll have to watch for any downbursts with any convection that does manage to sustain itself. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to diminish after sunset with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. For Thursday, a plume of deeper moisture characterized by precipitable water values near 2 inches is expected to return northward across portions of the southeast big bend. Thus, an early start to convection may occur during the morning hours in that region. Elsewhere, deep moisture is expected to increase a bit overall, but a gradient will remain across the forecast with drier air to the west and moisture air to the east. The rain chances will also follow this pattern with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area compared to the western half. Afternoon highs are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 90s. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Saturday]... The broad troughing across the SE CONUS will continue to lift northeastward as high pressure slides in from the east over the state, resulting in fairly zonal flow aloft. The axis of higher PWs over the Florida Peninsula will continue to edge closer to our area and into the Big Bend Friday, leading to slightly more coverage of showers and thunderstorms. By Saturday, the ridging should have a decent hold over the Peninsula, but it looks like a tropical wave feature could round the western edge of the ridge up into our area, dragging a swath of 2 inch PWs overhead. While the ridging does appear to be fairly strong, leading to high temperatures climbing into the mid to even upper 90s, the increase in moisture could still lead to shower and thunderstorm development. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]... For the long term, deeper moisture appears to largely remain in place across the area. Ridging over the state begins to weaken and retreat eastward a bit as a shortwave passes to the north, leading to a very slight decrease in high temperatures and a return to more widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms. .MARINE... Mostly southwest winds at 10 knots or less and 1-ft seas prevail through the period. Favorable boating conditions are expected over the next several days, outside of thunderstorms which may produce locally higher winds and seas. .FIRE WEATHER... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... Although rain chances are high through the period, 7-day QPF amounts generally yield only 1 inch or less. Locally higher amounts are always from slow-moving storms develop. There are no flooding concerns. Local rivers and creeks also remain in good shape. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 73 95 73 96 / 40 20 50 10 30 Panama City 91 77 90 77 91 / 10 10 20 0 20 Dothan 94 72 95 73 96 / 20 10 30 0 20 Albany 95 74 95 75 97 / 20 10 30 10 30 Valdosta 92 73 93 73 95 / 60 20 60 10 50 Cross City 92 74 93 74 94 / 70 30 60 10 50 Apalachicola 90 76 89 77 91 / 30 20 30 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM...Merrifield AVIATION...Harrigan MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield