217 FXUS63 KDDC 050542 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 ...updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Midlevel clouds across the eastern zones as of midday will continue to dissipate into a cumulus field through this afternoon, beneath continued NWly flow aloft. SE winds will continue to increase through this afternoon, gusting 30-35 mph at times. Temperatures will continue to trend well below normal, in many zones just getting close to 80. SW zones will be well into the 80s. All zones will be dry through about 7 pm this evening. Scattered convection is expected to develop along the Front Range this afternoon, with NWly flow subsequently spreading the activity toward SW KS tonight. Latest HRRR iterations and other CAMs suggest storms will be along the CO/KS border by 8 pm. The highest risk of large hail/damaging winds will be across these far western zones (roughly west of US 83), and relatively early this evening per SPC's 1630z outlook. With time and with eastward extent, any discrete storms will evolve into clusters, and also become strongly elevated, with 12z NAM progging near zero surface based CAPE in SW KS tonight. With modest elevated CAPE/NW flow aloft, expect some activity to survive into at least the central zones by midnight. With an unfavorable environment with eastward extent, confidence is less say east of US 283. Pops are in the likely category for much of the western/central zones tonight. Short term models suggest stratus will fill in behind the storms Wednesday morning, with sunrise temperatures once again in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Below normal temperatures will continue Wednesday afternoon, ranging from the lower 80s east, to mid 80s SW zones. Daylight Wednesday will be dry, with lighter SEly winds. A strong 594 dm upper high is forecast to be centered near Midland, Texas Wednesday evening. More weak shortwaves rounding the northern periphery of this high will probably encourage more nocturnal thunderstorms late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Pops are mainly in the chance category after midnight, favoring the E/NE zones per the NAM/ECMWF solutions. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 The balance of the long term will be quiet and dry as the subtropical upper anticyclone expands its influence across the plains. Temperatures will begin showing a warming trend Thursday, with max readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Friday will be noticeably hotter, with 12z ECMWF building a 594 dm ridge centered over SW Oklahoma. NBM's max temp grid of upper 90s was accepted for Friday, with some triple digits along the Oklahoma border. Saturday promises to be at least as hot, before models forecast the upper high to ever so gradually weaken Sunday through Tuesday, with a few degrees of cooling each day. NBM sprinkles some slight chance pops here and there in the long term. Did not remove them, but the prospects of organized rainfall/convection appear minimal with little if any forcing. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 An MCS is now moving though the area and should exist the region in the next few hours. In the mean time, periods of moderate rain in thunderstorms with bases around 6-9 kft can be expected and occasional gusts to around 30 knots south of GCK/DDC , included in LBL. Following the convection, a challenge will be how extensive in areas coverage low stratus int he Ifr category may develop around 12 UTC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 59 84 63 88 / 60 0 50 0 GCK 59 84 62 88 / 60 0 40 0 EHA 61 86 63 92 / 70 0 30 10 LBL 61 88 64 94 / 90 0 30 10 HYS 59 83 63 86 / 20 0 30 10 P28 60 84 65 91 / 70 10 40 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Russell