565 
FXUS63 KTOP 032343
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Upper troughing persists over the eastern half of the CONUS this 
afternoon with Tropical Storm Isaias located off the South Carolina 
coast continuing to progress northeast along the eastern seaboard. 
Northwest flow aloft and a ridge axis maintain unseasonably cool and 
pleasant conditions over the forecast area for the next few days. 
Temperatures this afternoon have only warmed into the upper 70s with 
low dew points and a cool northeasterly wind leading to autumn-like 
conditions. Temperatures fall into the low 50s tonight; normal lows 
are around 70 for early August. Tomorrow will be analogous to today 
with highs near 80 and low dew points leading to another wonderful 
summer day. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

The surface high pushes east of the area by late Tuesday 
increasing moisture transport across the High Plains. As a shortwave 
ejects across the eastern Rockies, convection is progged to develop 
and push southeast into southwest and south central Kansas Tuesday 
night along the moisture and instability axis. Have maintained 
chance POPs across the western half of the CWA although models 
appear to be trending towards a drier solution for the forecast 
area. 

With the surface high moving farther east on Wednesday, southerly 
flow returns although limited WAA will allow for one more nice day 
with highs in the low 80s. Summer heat and humidity build back in 
for the latter part of the week as temperatures climb into the low 
90s by Friday with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Several 
perturbations are progged to eject across the Central Plains 
Thursday into the weekend bringing periodic chances for showers and 
thunderstorms. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

VFR conditions will continue through the period at all TAF sites.
Satellite shows diurnal cu dissipating across the area and this
should clear after sunset along with diminishing NE winds. These
winds remain light and slowly turn more towards the ESE in the 
second half of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flanagan
LONG TERM...Flanagan
AVIATION...Picha