837 
FXUS64 KLUB 012316
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR will persist the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020/ 

SHORT TERM...
Persistent northerly flow will continue for the next 24 hours.  WV 
Imagery shows the leading edge of a jet max entering the region with 
the favorable left front quadrant over the eastern half of the CWFA. 
 Surface analysis shows a pooling of higher theta-e air from LBB-PVW 
eastward and this is where we have seen a cumulus field expand and 
intensify.  While bulk shear values have increased over the past few 
days, forecast soundings do show some challenges for free 
convection.  Still, it is possible that some storms could realize 
upward of 1500J/kg of CAPE with ~0.1 NCAPE.  Surface wind fields 
remain quite light and so there is little surface based forcing. 
Presently, with several degrees of heating remaining, chances are 
pretty good that we'll see a few storms pop up later this afternoon 
despite the models almost universally keeping the area dry. Activity 
should wane after the loss of daytime heating.  Then, the focus 
shifts further west as storms, which initially should form across 
the Raton Mesa and adjacent portions of the Sangre de Cristo range. 
These storms look to remain across the Pecos Valley well west of the 
CWFA though, as we've seen for several days, there is a chance that 
some of the activity could bleed over the state line.  However, the 
bulk of the activity should remain well west of the area.  On 
Sunday, winds should become more southerly focused in the 
climatological 10-15 mph range.  At present, it appears that the day 
should remain mostly dry until a Panhandle MCS moves into the
region.

LONG TERM...
Upper ridge to flatten by mid week as significant shortwave trough 
moves from British Columbia Monday into the Upper Midwest by 
Thursday. Although convection should decrease in coverage later in 
week, likely to still see some monsoonal moisture working around the 
northwest side of the ridge...keeping some pops in our northern and 
northwestern zones, however even this activity will likely diminish 
in coverage as ridge becomes more dominant. Temperatures will 
definitely be on the upswing. Upper 90s to 102 will be common in the 
Tuesday through Friday time frame. Heights are forecast to rise into 
next weekend with 500 mb heights reaching 595 dm next Saturday thus 
Pops to decrease further.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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