436 FXUS64 KEWX 011320 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 820 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 .UPDATE... Did a quick update to bump up rain chances this morning for the interior CWA given current radar trends. Residual convective boundaries from yesterday's activity has caused a bit of confusion among high res guidance for later this morning and afternoon. Now that we have some storms out there for initialization, they should trend toward a common solution. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020/ AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are possible today. Have left mention out of TAFs as PROBS are less than 30. VFR skies will prevail, except brief restrictions to MVFR/IFR are possible in SHRA/TSRA. Variable winds around 5 KTs or less will trend northerly at 5 to 10 KTs during the daytime hours. Wind gusts to 30 KTs are possible in and near SHRA/TSRA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... An upper level trough axis will gradually shift east over our area while a weak front drifts into our area today and dissipates on Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible east of I-35 today and closer to the Coastal Plains on Sunday due to upward forcing ahead of the trough axis. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across most areas this afternoon and Sunday afternoon due to heating of a sufficiently moist airmass. The main threats would be gusty winds due to moderate instability and lapse rates, as well as locally heavy downpours due to slow moving cells. In spite of the front, above normal temperatures are expected both days. LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)... As the previous suite of 00Z models backed away from a continued unstable NW pattern heading into Monday, the 00Z runs today show an even more stable pattern. The latest runs show stronger mid-level ridging eastward into North TX to replace the northerly flow that brought us the nice rain pattern for Friday into today. The isolated PoPs allocated for Monday in previous forecasts have been taken out of the forecast. The ridge continues to shift east across TX through the week, bringing another string of triple digit heat to the I-35 corridor. This heat spell should not be as oppressive as the one from early to mid July but heat index values will likely return to the all-familiar 100 to 107 degree range form central and eastern counties Tuesday and beyond. On Friday, a weak inverted trough over the Gulf moves into South TX, but it hardly puts a dent in the ridge. If anything, daytime temps peaking Wednesday into Thursday may ease off a degree or two for Friday into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 75 99 74 100 / 10 - 10 - 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 71 99 74 99 / 10 - 20 - 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 73 99 73 99 / 20 - 20 - 10 Burnet Muni Airport 96 71 98 72 98 / - 0 10 - 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 75 104 77 105 / 20 10 20 - 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 71 99 74 100 / - 0 10 - 10 Hondo Muni Airport 99 74 101 74 103 / 20 10 20 - 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 73 99 73 100 / 20 - 20 - 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 74 99 75 100 / 20 - 20 - - San Antonio Intl Airport 98 75 99 76 101 / 20 - 20 - 10 Stinson Muni Airport 97 74 99 75 100 / 20 - 20 - 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...EWilliams Long-Term...Zeitler