283 FXUS63 KOAX 011153 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 653 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 The main forecast concerns are in regards to chances for showers and thunderstorms today into Sunday. There were a few very isolated small showers over far southwest Iowa and far southeast NE yesterday between about 2 pm and 6 pm, but they were insignificant. Temperatures yesterday warmed to about as expected, into the lower and mid 80s. At 500 mb the following features were of interest. A fairly strong shortwave trough was pushing northeast across southern British Columbia. This had 12 hour height falls of up to 80 meters last evening. There was another weaker wave over the southern part of Hudson Bay and into northwest Ontario. An extension of that weaker wave was across MN and eastern SD. A ridge remained in place from AZ up through ID. At 850 mb, low pressure was near the AR/MO border, with another low across western Ontario. Cooler air was pushing down from ND behind that low. Surface analysis at 3 am showed a weak cold front dropping south across MN and SD. Today... The cold front moving through the region, in association with a weak upper level disturbance should bring some showers and scattered thunderstorms to eastern NE and southwest IA. Coverage is expected to be somewhat limited this morning, but should increase in the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected, but a few could be strong with small hail and gusty winds. Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s. Tonight and Sunday... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to slowly decrease in coverage during the evening, mostly ending by 11 pm. Temperatures late tonight should bottom out in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Will keep some low POPs late tonight and Sunday, mainly in southwest IA and areas of southeast NE near the MO border. North winds will bring in a slightly cooler airmass, so expect highs Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80. Sunday night through Tuesday... Cool high pressure at the surface will build down from the Dakotas and MN into IA and NE Sunday night, then slowly slide east through Tuesday. Little or no precipitation is expected during this period, with cooler than average temperatures. Lows will be mainly in the 50s with highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday night into Saturday... During this period we should remain in west or northwest mid level flow, with the main storm track to our north. A ridge is expected to strengthen over TX and NM toward the end of the period. Models suggest off and on chances for precipitation during this period, with POPs mainly 20 to 30 percent. There appears to be a fairly decent chance for some rain amounts of a quarter to half an inch Wednesday into Wednesday night. Highs look to be mostly in the 80s with lows in the 60s through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2020 VFR conditions (SCT-BKN between 3000 and 20000 ft AGL and unrestricted visibility) should continue through 18Z today. Scattered thunderstorms may develop along I-80 between 18Z and 22Z today, then drift south to the NE/KS border through 02Z Sunday. Storms shouldn't be severe, but may pose a brief up/downdraft, LLWS and reduced visibility threat to KOMA and KLNK. Winds will be northerly at all three TAF sites (KOMA, KLNK & KOFK) by 21Z, with gusts of 20 to 28 kt possible. Lighter north winds, 6 to 10 kt should prevail between 01Z and 12Z Sunday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...Albright