881 FXUS64 KAMA 310821 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 321 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020 .DISCUSSION... A 597 dm upper level high is centered over north Arizona this morning, and is expected to amplify through the day to place the region under north-northwest upper level flow. An exiting upper low over eastern Kansas and moving into Missouri will help continue with surface northerly flow, which will aid in keeping temperatures near to slightly below seasonal norms (mid 80s to around 90). Given that the upper level flow pattern is showing a more northerly component to it, showers and thunderstorms that develop in Colorado and New Mexico will take a trajectory late this afternoon and evening that will mostly miss the region. There is some possibility that a storm or two could form along the New Mexico border and clip the western Texas Panhandle counties, with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours being a concern should that occur. A similar pattern is expected to remain in place on Saturday, with another upper level trof digging down into Nebraska, and a stronger mid level jet streak (around 50 kts) pointed at the region. Once more, the more northerly component to the flow will keep any thunderstorm development constrained to the New Mexico and Colorado mountains, with steering flow potentially allowing for the western zones to be clipped once more. Much like Friday, gusty winds, small hail and a brief heavy downpour would be possible with any storms that make it into our western CWA zones. A pattern shift is anticipated starting on Sunday and lasting through the week next week, with the upper high relocating a little further south into southern California and southern Arizona. This will present with a more northwesterly component to the flow aloft, with embedded shortwave disturbances riding over the top of the ridge on a fairly consistent basis. One such disturbance will dive down the northern high plains and send a weak cold front through the region. There is some suggestion that this front could lose forward momentum and become stationary across the region through most of next week. If so, this would provide a focusing mechanism for thunderstorm activity to form along and with another disturbance passing to the north on Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm activity could move across the region during the afternoon and evening hours. As there is disagreement between longer range model guidance as to timing of these disturbances, have held with chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through starting Sunday and lasting into at least Thursday. High temperatures will fall into the mid 80s to near 90 due to the cold front mentioned on Sunday, and gradually increase each day as height rises help bring high temperatures above normal. If the pattern anticipated holds, we could see highers in the 90s to near 100 by next Wednesday and lasting into Thursday. Bieda && .AVIATION...Previous Discussion...06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period, with thunderstorms mainly staying in New Mexico and south of the TAF terminals. Northerly winds around 10 to 15 kts are expected to continue through the forecast period. Though thunderstorm chances exist Friday afternoon just west of Dalhart, the probabilities are low enough not to mention at this time. Bieda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 88 62 93 64 92 / 10 10 10 10 30 Beaver OK 85 60 90 62 85 / 10 5 5 5 20 Boise City OK 84 60 90 60 86 / 20 10 10 20 60 Borger TX 92 64 98 67 96 / 5 5 10 10 30 Boys Ranch TX 89 62 95 63 94 / 10 10 20 20 40 Canyon TX 88 61 93 64 92 / 10 10 10 10 30 Clarendon TX 88 63 92 66 92 / 10 5 10 10 20 Dalhart TX 85 60 90 61 89 / 10 10 20 20 50 Guymon OK 85 60 90 62 86 / 10 5 5 10 30 Hereford TX 89 62 94 64 94 / 10 10 20 20 30 Lipscomb TX 86 60 91 63 88 / 5 5 5 5 20 Pampa TX 88 62 93 64 92 / 5 5 5 10 20 Shamrock TX 87 62 90 65 91 / 10 0 5 10 20 Wellington TX 90 63 94 67 94 / 10 5 5 10 10 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 98