899 FXUS64 KMOB 302025 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...An upper ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward over the local area through the near term while an upstream trough deepens over the Great Plains. Subsidence beneath the upper ridge, in combination with a slug of drier air in the mid levels (PWATs < 1.5 inches) moving into the area from the southwest, should help suppress convective development through the near term despite the impinging trough to our west. Left a slight chance for storms in the forecast Friday morning and afternoon generally north of Highway 84 and over portions of the Florida panhandle east of Fort Walton, where the aforementioned drier air will take more time to settle in and a few showers and storms could pop during the heat of the day. For the most part, however, the best rain chances remain to our north and east where deeper moisture will remain plentiful, and to our west where the upper trough is providing stronger forcing. Low temperatures tonight remain in the low/mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Friday continue to trend warmer, reaching the low to mid 90s across much of the area and upper 80s along the beaches. /49 && .SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...The drier pattern will continue through most of the short term, however the upper ridge that brought the drier air will retreat south slightly in response to a deepening mid/upper trough over the central US and the flow around what is now Tropical Storm Isaias, which will likely be off the east coast of Florida. As noted, the low to mid level moisture will be lower across our region early in the short term period, with PWATS initially in the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range Friday night into early Saturday. Later in the day on Saturday, with the approaching mid/upper level trough to our northwest, a ribbon of increased moisture will likely extend into our area from the west, with PWATS about 1.75 to 2.0 inches. Some weak shortwave activity aloft could lift northeast across our area Saturday, and along with daytime heating and instability, should result in a slight increase in convective activity (about 20 to 30 percent- especially over the western half of our area). A few strong to briefly severe storms could be possible late Saturday, but overall the severe threat will be low. PoPs drop off again Saturday night with loss of daytime heating, but some lingering showers will be possible overnight, especially near the coast and over our western Mississippi counties. Expect a repeat on Sunday and Sunday night as the same parameters are in play, with scattered showers and storms (some possibly strong) again developing during the day and diminishing somewhat (though not completely) Sunday night. As far as temperatures are concerned, overnight lows both Friday night and Saturday will range from the lower 70s over most of the interior to the mid 70s at the coast. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday generally in the low 90s, but a few mid 90s over the interior and upper 80s along the beaches. One thing that could influence the rain chances and temperatures over our area on Sunday would be the passing of Tropical Storm Isaias to our east. At this time the storm is expected to be lifting northward up the east coast of Florida by Sunday. There are still some uncertainties with regard to both the track and intensity of Isaias, but it's possible that the storm could be strong enough to produce a sinking motion in the atmosphere over our area on Sunday, which could actually limit convective development even with the mid/upper level trough just to our northwest. The sinking motion (and associated limited convection) could also result temperatures slightly hotter than current forecast advertises for Sunday. Just something we will have to monitor, and for now will keep the scattered PoPs mentioned above in for Sunday until the future track and intensity of Isaias becomes clearer. /12 && .EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The global models indicate a long-wave upper trough will set up from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast during the extended range and move little through the period. With this long wave trough interacting with the moist summertime airmass, an unsettled weather pattern remains favorable through the extended period with modest chances of daily, mostly diurnal showers and storms. As usual for this time of the year, a few of the storms could be strong at times with brief strong winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rains. As the aforementioned long-wave trough digs and becomes more firmly established over the Central US/MS River Valley, Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to begin the re-curvature process, being pulled northeast along the general US eastern seaboard area. Again the exact track and intensity of the storm during that time frame is uncertain, so we will still be continuing to monitor Isaias closely in the extended timeframe. Temperatures through the extended period will remain generally unchanged. /12 && .MARINE...No marine impacts of concern the next few days. Coverage of showers/storms will be much more isolated in nature. Light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow continues through the weekend with little change in seas. /49 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob