678 FXUS61 KRLX 301912 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 312 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure approaches from the west, while upper level disturbances cross the area today. Low pressure crosses Friday. Another low and cold front approach over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... A low pressure system moves in from the west/southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are currently occurring over the area and will persist through the period. Rainfall is the largest threat with this system, and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued through tomorrow morning as models indicate plenty of moisture and lift to keep these showers going as the low moves through. Rainfall amounts up to 2 inches is possible for much of the area, potentially exceeding 2 1/2 inches at some locations. Isolated higher amounts will also be possible in storms with heavy downpours. The northwestern portion of the area will likely have the least amount of rainfall for the area with rainfall amounts around 0.5-1 inches. Low lying areas and areas particularly vulnerable to water issues may experience flooding as this system continues to move through. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible tonight as these showers persist, and may linger through much of the morning on Friday. The surface low moves through the area on Friday with an associated front lingering along the southeastern portion of the region. This will allow chances of precipitation to remain mostly along the southeast Friday night, however widespread chances will still be possible through the remainder of the area. Temperatures on Friday will be on the cooler side, just below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the lowlands and in the upper 60s to upper 70s for the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 PM Thursday... Longwave trough remains situated to our west over the weekend with deep southwest flow aloft. At the surface a wavy front will lift north over time as a surface low tracks to our northwest. The net result will be a rather unsettled day on Saturday with numerous showers/thunderstorms developing by afternoon. PWATs remain high so the threat for locally heavy rainfall will persist. The front then lifts northward on Sunday as does the deeper moisture, so less overall coverage of showers/storms is expected with the greatest PoPs over the mountains. It will remain warm and muggy with dewpoints remaining around 70 throughout the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 312 PM Thursday... Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into next week with the potential of Isaias recurving up the East Coast. Models are rather consistent in keeping a trough aloft over our region which should keep a daily threat for showers/storms in our forecast. Heavier rains are possible should Isaias track close or over our region, but plenty of time to monitor that. It does appear that our temps will cool to more normal levels for early August, perhaps even coming in a tad bit cooler than normal by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 PM Thursday... A low pressure system is approaching from the southwest, bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. All sites are coded with VCTS, and thunderstorms may occur at some sites as this system moves in. Some last minute amendments may be necessary if thunderstorms do approach the sites, but will keep a watch on the ongoing conditions. Gusty winds could occur with these storms, as well as heavy downpours which could lead to brief dips to IFR conditions at some sites. MVFR conditions will also be possible in ceilings and visibilities in rain through much of the period. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through most of the period. Low stratus or fog may form tonight leading to IFR conditions in ceilings and possibly in visibilities. These conditions will likely hold through the morning hours tomorrow, improving to MVFR conditions around 14/15Z. Winds should be relatively light and variable for most of the period, with brief periods of stronger winds possible in storms. Winds should become mostly calm tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers and storms could vary this afternoon and tonight. Intensity of fog may vary overnight tonight into Friday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M H M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H L M H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H M M M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in rain Friday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>008- 013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518. OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ083>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/CG NEAR TERM...CG SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...CG