341 FXUS61 KBTV 280740 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 340 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the North Country this morning, bringing some rain showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to the region. Drier conditions are then expected later this afternoon and tonight behind the front. It will be another day of above normal temperatures today with highs in the 80s to around 90. The rest of the week will see a return to seasonal temperatures. Chances for precipitation will continue with a gradual drying trend towards the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...A cold front, evident on satellite imagery as well as in surface observations, is moving into the St Lawrence Valley early this morning. This boundary will continue to push eastward today, exiting into New Hampshire during the early to mid afternoon hours. Ahead of the front, it's still very muggy with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers are spreading eastward ahead of the front as well. These have mostly been light, with any lightning or heavier convection positioned well to the southwest. Precipitation will spread eastward across northern NY this morning, reaching VT by daybreak or so. There's currently a capping inversion in place, so anticipate little to no thunder through at least mid morning. However, a rumble or two is possible over eastern VT this afternoon as the atmosphere will have time to destabilize prior to the front's arrival. Shear is ample, but best instability will remain to our south and east given the timing of the frontal passage, so no strong or severe convection is expected. Drier air will follow the front, allowing for plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions. Hence expect this afternoon will feel much more comfortable than the past day or two, especially from the Champlain Valley westward where dewpoints will drop into the 50s. However, it will still be warm day with highs topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. Unfortunately, the lower dewpoints will be short- lived as flow will turn to the southwest ahead of an upper trough swinging eastward into central Ontario/Quebec. Moisture will begin to lift back into the North Country tonight, so in spite of mostly clear skies, lows will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A shortwave will rotate around the upper trough on Wednesday, skirting the international border. This will bring scattered showers with possible thunderstorms, though expect the bulk of the activity will remain to our north, closer to the best forcing. Highs will be a couple of degrees cooler than today, though still above normal, mainly in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper level trough slowing swinging through southern Ontario/Quebec will be the driving feature for weather across the North Country through the end of the work week. Overall, expect precipitation to be mainly diurnally driven with limited instability supporting mainly showers with some isolated thunder possible. Areal coverage will be the greatest Thursday afternoon as the base of the trough moves over the region, with more limited coverage Friday as the parent upper low moves off into the Canadian maritimes. Temps will be right around normal to slightly above for the end of July with highs the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend generally dry conditions are expected as the aforementioned trough exits east of the region, and brief shortwave ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. Latest ECMWF and GDPS are a little slower with the eastward progression of the ridge, holding on to a bit more troughiness for Saturday as compared to the GFS so have kept in a slight chance for showers across central/northern Vermont, but in general it should be a pretty dry day otherwise. As the upper ridge centers over the region Saturday night, a deepening upper trough over the central CONUS and developing surface low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley look to renew chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday with a low track up the St. Lawrence Valley. Deep southwesterly flow will tap into rich sub-tropical moisture lingering off the southeast Atlantic coast with PWATs jumping back into the 1.5-2" range supporting the threat for locally heavy rainfall. In addition, decent 0-3km shear of 25-35kts supports the chance for some organized thunderstorm development, especially across northern New York where instability is maximized Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers linger into early next week as the parent upper trough swings through. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers and storms to move east into northern New York and eventually into Vermont through the early morning hours as a frontal boundary moves through. Precipitation will remain light, but brief MVFR conditions in any shower can't be ruled out. Bulk of the activity will exit into New Hampshire by 18z, with clearing skies to follow. South to southwest winds will be light through daybreak, turning more west to southwest and increasing to around 10 kt behind the frontal passage. Winds will again lighten and turn to the south after 00z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hastings