048 FXUS64 KBMX 271955 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0100 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020/ Through Tuesday. Primary feature of note is a mid-level trough over the Lower MS Valley which is producing extensive cloud cover and rain showers over southern Louisiana and Mississippi. As the trough slowly lifts northward through tomorrow, deep moisture will stream into Central AL from the Gulf. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible both today and tomorrow due to the combination of lift and abundant moisture. There are some showers already ongoing in the northern portions of the forecast area at this hour, and expect areal coverage to continue increasing through the afternoon before diminishing late this evening. PWATs rise into the 2-2.2 inch range tomorrow as the trough begins to lift into northern Mississippi. As a result, we will likely see higher coverage with rain potentially beginning during the morning hours and becoming likely by the afternoon. Highs should be a few degrees lower due to the rain and overcast skies. Look for lower 90s today and upper 80s tomorrow. 86 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020/ Wednesday through Sunday. /No shortage of raindrops ahead; excessive heat remains on leave/ Wednesday should begin with some showers, with a progressive blossoming of additional showers and storms, culminating in fairly high coverage through the day. This'll be the result of a deep, tropical air mass and surface-based instability values climbing to +1,000 J/kg, alongside an impulse rounding the Gulf of Mexico ridge. The overall pattern will be conducive for some showers to persist through the overnight hours. PWAT values remain high/at or just over 2" through Friday, though we should trend toward a stronger branch of riding across the Gulf of Mexico while a surface front stalls to our north. For Central Alabama, this should result in a general northward shift in the focused swaths of showers and storms for Thursday and Friday. Again, activity should max in coverage during the afternoon to evening time frame, with potential for some lingering overnight activity. Regional H5 troughing arrives for Saturday and Sunday, helping to spawn a surface low near northeast AR/southeast MO along the previously mentioned front. Guidance shows the front on a dissipating trend as it moves into Alabama, due to downstream sub-tropical high pressure. With the lobe of tropical moisture departing and a flow shift taking place, our atmospheric column dries a bit over the weekend, with deep-layer moisture and precipitation aligned along/near the front. There's still a bit of model variability during this time frame, so this part of the forecast is subject to modification regarding rain/storm chances. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. The potential for flight impacts will remain increased as a mid- level trough over Louisiana slowly lifts northward through this TAF period. There is sufficient moisture available for scattered SHRA & TSRA to continue developing this afternoon, especially near our northern TAF sites, but the activity should diminish by 03Z. Added a PROB30 at all sites for the second half of this forecast period as the trough moves over northern Mississippi. 86 && .FIRE WEATHER... Heightened chances for rain and storms are forecast through the week as a tropical air mass overspreads the region. Transport winds should average less than 10 knots from day to day generally from the southwest through much of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 87 70 86 71 / 30 60 30 70 50 Anniston 72 88 71 87 71 / 30 60 30 70 50 Birmingham 74 89 72 87 73 / 30 60 30 70 50 Tuscaloosa 73 88 73 87 73 / 30 60 30 70 40 Calera 72 87 72 86 72 / 30 60 30 70 40 Auburn 72 86 71 86 71 / 30 60 30 70 40 Montgomery 73 88 72 89 73 / 30 60 30 60 30 Troy 72 87 72 88 73 / 30 70 30 60 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$