102 FXUS61 KBTV 260736 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 336 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot summer day is on tap for the North Country as we see high temperatures climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Our afternoon dewpoints today will be in the lower to mid 60s which will yield heat indices ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. A chance for showers and thunderstorms exists across northern Vermont this afternoon and evening as well. Monday isn't looking as hot as today but will still be hot and humid as we see our dewpoints creep upwards to the lower 70s. Heat indices on Monday could exceed 95 degrees but cloud cover may limit our overall heating. A cold front will swing through later in the day on Monday and bring cooler and near normal temperatures through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Sunday...All is quiet across the North Country this morning as surface high pressure continues to bring tranquil weather to the region. We will see the nose of the thermal ridge build overhead today with 850 mb and 925 mb temperatures a degree or two warmer than yesterday. This will yield afternoon highs climbing into the mid 80s to lower 90s across the region. Dewpoints will also be on the rise throughout the day as moisture begins to stream into the region from the west. We likely won't have the dry air to mix down like we did yesterday afternoon so we will likely be looking at dewpoints in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Heat indices this afternoon will generally be in the 90-95 range but a few places in western Rutland county and eastern Windsor near the Connecticut River could see heat indices 94 to 97 degrees. Chances are increasing for the potential of some afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms across northern Vermont as a "ridge roller" or a shortwave pushes through southern Quebec along the eastern periphery of an upper level trough. With 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear expected this afternoon, we could see a few strong thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms we see this afternoon and evening would be capable of gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Shower and thunderstorm activity should subside as we head into the evening and overnight hours but a few showers could linger across northeastern Vermont. The first half of Monday should start off dry but as the day progresses we will see increased chances for showers and thunderstorms as a stacked low pressure system to our north begins to push a cold front into the region. Convection ahead of the cold front will likely remain below severe limits given PWATS near or above 2.0" which is indicative of high freezing levels and moist adiabatic lapse rates. We could see some pretty efficient showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours given the high PWATS but a 40 knot low level jet should help push the precipitation through quickly. As for temps on Monday, we have lowered temps across northern Vermont given signs of convective debris clouds from Ontario throughout the day. This will likely keep temperatures below the 90 degree mark while southern parts of the Champlain Valley will still see temps in the low 90s. With the aforementioned PWATs, we will see our dewpoints increase into the lower 70s Monday afternoon with heat indices 93-98 degrees. We are holding off on an advisory at this time given the uncertainty in cloud cover and shower activity Monday. Nevertheless, it's going to be hot and humid on Monday so be sure to prepare for another hot summer day across the North Country. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Sunday...After a quick break in the activity early Monday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to march across the North Country Monday night into Tuesday in response to an approaching cold front, which will cross the area during the day Tuesday. First part of the night will be dry with the exception of along he international border, then precipitations chances increase late with the approach of the front. It'll be another muggy night with temperatures remaining in the upper 60s to around 70. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread on Tuesday with the frontal passage, particularly across VT. The main threat with the Mon night-Tue activity will be heavy rain; PWATs will surge to 1.5-2+ inches and warm cloud depths will exceed 11 kft, making for efficient rainfall processes. Moisture decreases behind the front, bringing showers and thunderstorms to an end over northern NY during the morning, and over VT late in the day, with sunshine breaking out by sunset in most areas. Highs will be within a few degrees of Monday, but falling dewpoints, particularly in northern NY, will make for a bit less oppressive conditions. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Sunday...Any lingering showers or thunderstorms will come to an end early Tuesday night as drier air follows the frontal passage. However, expect additional showers to redevelop Wednesday and Thursday as an upper low spins by just to our north. This will bring cooler, near- normal conditions, and the cooler air aloft combined with daytime heating will allow scattered showers to develop each afternoon. Some differences between model solutions as to when the upper low departs, but staying with a model blend has Saturday dry. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours with high pressure continuing to remain in control of our weather. We will see wind shear develop at most terminals over the next hour or two with both Mt. Mansfield and Whiteface reporting winds in excess of 40 mph and only expected to get stronger. The core of the stronger winds will exit around 12Z and our surface winds will begin to pick up which should eliminate any shear concerns thereafter. Gusty southwest winds ranging from 15-25 knots will be widespread this afternoon and will weaken this evening as the surface layer begins to stabilize. It's looking increasingly likely we will see wind shear develop once again around 04Z but will try to fine-tune timing with the next TAF package issuance. There is a very remote chance of a stray shower or two this afternoon and evening, namely at KBTV and KPBG, but coverage will be so isolated no mention of VCSH has been included at this time. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Clay