854 
FXUS64 KSHV 260522
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.AVIATION...

For the 26/06z TAFs...Latest radar imagery shows all earlier
convection has come to an end across the area, while latest
satellite imagery shows generally clear skies across the area with
only a few lingering clouds here and there. As such, VFR
conditions will continue across the area through around 10z. From
around 10z through around 15z we will see widespread MVFR
conditions to return to the area under a low cu field. A few
locations could see brief IFR to even LIFR cigs at times between
10-15z. Currently have mention of the lower cigs for KSHV, KLFK,
KGGG, and KELD. Scattered convection will be possible once again
after or around 18z. Have mention of VCSH or VCTS for all
terminals at or after 18z. Isolated TSRA will be possible at times
for some terminals, however, will leave mention out at this time
and will cover any thunderstorms with an amendment as needed. As
with previous days, convection should diminish during the evening
across the area. /33/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1006 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight/

As was the case 24 hrs ago, much of the convection has diminished
with the loss of heating and bndry lyr stabilization, with
subsidence beneath the expansive upper ridge extending from the
Srn Plains into the Midwest/Mid-South region and TN Valley.
However, some rogue convection does linger though and continues to
quickly progress NW across extreme NE TX and adjacent sections of
SW AR in an area of slightly better instability with SBCapes
around 2000 J/Kg where these areas were largely untouched from
convection earlier today. Meanwhile, another small area of SHRA
continued to shift NW across Rapides and Srn Avoyelles Parishes in
Cntrl LA, and may hold together long enough to affect the Srn
sections of Ncntrl LA before diminishing by 06Z. Thus, have
maintained low chance/slight chance pops for these areas through
the late evening hours, with a dry forecast expected through the
remainder of the overnight hours. However, the mosaic radar
imagery indicates a weak mid level circulation forming along an
inverted trough axis aloft from Hurricane Hanna now moving inland
across Deep S TX, which should result in some convection
redevelopment late over portions of SE into SW LA, which will
drive sct convection NW into the region late Sunday morning and
especially through the afternoon. 

The convective debris from the earlier convection has quickly
thinned over the area this evening, but low stratus is expected to
develop again after 06Z as it quickly spreads NNW across much of
the region prior to daybreak. Thus, have beefed up the sky grids,
with the low stratus and high PW's in place again likely keeping
min temps from falling much farther overnight. Did make some minor
tweaks to min temps, with hot and humid conditions again
returning before the convection develops from late morning through
the afternoon. 

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  89  74 /  60  20  30  10 
MLU  91  73  89  73 /  60  20  40  20 
DEQ  90  72  91  71 /  20  10  20  20 
TXK  90  72  89  73 /  30  10  20  10 
ELD  89  72  91  72 /  40  10  30  10 
TYR  88  73  89  73 /  50  10  30  10 
GGG  89  72  90  73 /  60  10  30  10 
LFK  87  73  88  73 /  70  30  50  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/33