270 FXUS61 KBGM 251349 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 949 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moving over the region will provide dry weather into Monday. Temperatures will warm as highs reach well into the 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday, along with gradually increasing humidity. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return Monday and continue into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 930 am Update...updated to add a few morning sprinkles around BGM down to Sullivan Co. NY. Surface analysis shows a weak boundary roughly from between Dunkirk and Buffalo NY to the Catskills with higher dewpoints to the south in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s north. RAP analysis from SPC shows a small ripple at 700 and 500 mb moving southeast across central NY/northeast PA. There was also a patch of higher dewpoints at 850 mb and 925 mb south of this weak boundary. This weak upper feature zips through late this morning and apparently will spark off a few more light showers/sprinkles southeast of BGM. As the diurnal heating increases and the weak impulse passes by this combination should end this sparse and light activity by midday. Rest of forecast remains similar to previous forecast. We expect a few more isolated showers and storms to fire along this boundary mainly in the southern part of our forecast area in northeast PA. This area has a little deeper low-level moisture. CAMs models also support this idea and tweaked POPs following 06z NAMnest's depiction the most. 630 am update... Little change. Dense valley fog with some cloudy above it. Even a few small showers. Lowered temperatures in Oneida County up to 9 AM. 3 am update... No big changes. High pressure over the Great Lakes will move over our area tonight. Sunday the high moves south while the next cold front moves through Michigan. Sunday will continue to be dry and very warm. Valley fog has formed over the upper Delaware and north branch Susquehanna basins early this morning. So far fog in the central southern tier NY and NEPA is limited under mostly cloudy skies. Valley fog should form though. This will all burn off by 10 AM. Some isolated light rain showers are possible from Bradford to Luzerne counties into afternoon. Weak instability may be enough to lift low level moisture over the terrain. Elsewhere becoming mostly sunny with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Winds will be light. Tonight valley fog possible mainly in south central NY and NEPA. Skies will be partly cloudy to clear with surface winds under 5 mph. Low temperatures will again be in the low and mid 60s. High pressure over the area with an upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley. The upper level ridge breaks down and the high moves south. A slow moving surface cold front will move into LP Michigan and southeast Ontario. Dry mostly sunny conditions will continue. High temperatures will be mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Humidity will edge up but at this time not enough so heat indices get into the upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 AM Update... Warm and muggy night expected Sunday night with surface ridge directly overhead. Monday is looking like another hot day, as ridging slides east and warm air advection develops out ahead of an approaching cold front. Some urban areas are likely to hit heat advisory criteria with heat indices approaching the upper 90s. Models continue to delay the arrival of the cold front, with most of the guidance showing it still in Ontario, Canada by 0Z Tuesday. Although there could be a few showers and thunderstorms that develop out ahead of the front late Monday afternoon, it is starting to look more and more likely that there will be little break from the heat until Tuesday. The front will finally enter far western New York by Tuesday morning. However, models have continue to push back the arrival of the front over the past several runs, so current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms may just enter our west/northwest counties by 12Z Tuesday, but the bulk of the activity likely holds off until after the short term period of the forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 345 AM Update... Models are now in decent agreement with cold front pushing through the region Tuesday afternoon. The FROPA timing should be favorable for thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon, especially east of I81. The exact timing will determine exactly where storms develop Tuesday afternoon and also how strong they will be, the slower the arrival then the more likely scenario for strong storms develop with ample heating and destabilization able to occur. Much cooler weather comes in behind the front for midweek. Upper trough lags behind the front with it overhead for Wednesday, can't rule out the chance for a few showers to develop Wednesday afternoon. The trough finally moves east of the area on Thursday with high pressure to end the work week. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 640 am update... High pressure is building in with drier air and calm to light winds. Valley fog is widespread now but not at TAF sites. There still could be restrictions in fog until 13z. Most likely brief except BGM where fog will lift out of valley with IFR conditions. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and tonight mainly clear all sites. Valley fog again possible late tonight. For now only have MVFR vsby fog at ELM starting at 08z. Winds early this morning and tonight will be light and variable to calm. During the day west to northwest winds at 5 kts. Outlook... Sunday through Monday morning...Mainly VFR, but early morning fog/restrictions possible, especially at KELM. Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with some restrictions at times. Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR expected. Low chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...TAC