604 
FXUS63 KIND 251039
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
639 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Dry weather should stay in place through the weekend with high
pressure in control over central Indiana. A frontal system
approaching and moving through the area will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms from Monday through Tuesday. After
mainly dry conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
chances for thunderstorms will overspread the area ahead of
another frontal system Thursday through Friday. Temperatures will
be above normal through Monday and then near normal for the rest 
of the week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

With small dew point depressions again early this morning, could
see patchy fog develop across the area over the next few hours.
This will be more likely in low spots and along rivers, while many
other spots could see little to no fog. Given the limited coverage
of any fog, will leave out of gridded forecast for the time being.

High pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny today
across central Indiana. Look for highs a degree or two warmer than
yesterday in the mid 80s to around 90. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Dry conditions will continue under high pressure from tonight
through Sunday night. Could see a stray shower or storm Sunday
late afternoon/evening from instability, but think this is pretty
low probability. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, should
see high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday.
Some return flow as the surface high moves off to the east will
allow dew point temperatures to climb back into the lower 70s.
This will produce maximum heat index values approaching 100 for
Sunday afternoon.

Models are showing a little variety in the timing of the arrival 
of QPF on Monday ahead of the cold front, but majority of 
solutions favor the best PoPs for late Monday afternoon/evening. 
Given the timing of the cold frontal passage and the progged 
instability and potential for enhanced low level and mid level 
flow, think the marginal risk for severe storms for Monday is 
reasonable. Given the potential for cloud cover and rain/storms,
highs on Monday could top out in the middle and upper 80s, with a
90 or two more possible over the southern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Ensembles are in good agreement during this period. A seasonably 
strong trough is expected to move through the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. It appears the associated cold front may still be in the
process of passing through the local area. Will keep some PoPs
going on Tuesday to cover this front.

Some of the ensembles keep the front lingering close enough to 
the Ohio River for a convective threat over the south on 
Wednesday. As a result, will keep some PoPs going in those areas 
for Wednesday.

Ensembles suggest another short wave trough may drop into the
Midwest from the northwest during the latter parts of next week. 
Will go with PoPs all areas for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 251200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Patchy visibility restrictions due to fog expected to dissipate by
the mid morning hours.

Otherwise, some diurnal cloud based 035-040 expected to develop by
the late morning hours, and continue through the afternoon.
Surface winds generally at or below 6 kts today.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS