926 FXUS63 KGID 232055 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 355 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 A relatively quiet evening and night. Upper level ridging is in place across the Central Plains. Partly cloudy high clouds dominate south central Nebraska. Temperatures have reached into the upper 80s to low 90s. Southerly winds are gusting to 20 to 25 mph. Friday is largely expected to be quiet, but a weak disturbance will move across the High Plains helping to develop thunderstorms across western Nebraska. Now, some guidance does indicate the potential for scattered activity early Friday morning skirting the Sandhills and our forecast area, but honestly much of the high res guidance has kept it dry and thus have kept the forecast dry for now. Some of the latest guidance has indicated that some of the storms that develop later in the afternoon into the evening could eventually skirt central Nebraska and the SPC Day 2 has expanded the Marginal and Slight areas of the outlook. Now, confidence that this activity will impact the area is lower. So have kept precipitation chances low at this time, something to watch for the next couple of forecasts. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast with persistent southerly flow and moisture influx. Highs in the mid 90s with Heat index values in the 100 to 105 range. The weekend will bring a cold front and increased chances for thunderstorms. The upper ridge will flatten as a disturbance moves along the US/Canada border. This front will bring precipitation and heat relief. Saturday evening will be the next best chance ahead of the front, with the frontal passage on Sunday bringing the best chance for precipitation to the extended forecast. Off and on thunderstorms are possible through the work- week as we transition to northwesterly upper flow. Sunday temps are subject depending on the speed of the front...if the front is slower, highs will be in the 90s...otherwise they could be cooler if it is moving faster. Behind the front, temps for the first part of the work-week will decrease with highs in the lower 80s as the region stays in northwesterly upper level flow and a number of disturbances move through the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 An area of low pressure over CO along with strong high pressure over the SE will bring somewhat gusty winds to the TAF sites this afternoon. Winds look to gust into the mid 20s and should taper down this evening. Looking at model Skew-T's, we may see some afternoon CU for a few hours with heating. Not seeing LLWS with current model runs, but models showing a 20 to 30kts LLJ this evening. VFR is forecast through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Billings Wright LONG TERM...Billings Wright AVIATION...Beda