662 FXUS61 KBTV 230700 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers with afternoon thunderstorms will be possible today as a weak boundary works through the North Country. All shower activity loops to taper off early this evening with clearing skies expected through the overnight hours. Some patchy fog may develop tonight in response to recent rainfall and light winds but will quickly lift Friday morning. We will see a warming trend starting Friday and continue through the weekend as temperatures warm back to well above normal values by Sunday. The next chance of rainfall now looks to be on Monday with a decent storm system moving through the region. This will allow temperatures to return to near normal values through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Thursday...A weak filament of PV ahead of the main shortwave trough is currently tracking across northern New York. Several showers have developed in response to this feature moving through a rather stable air mass. The lack of any appreciable instability should preclude any thunderstorm activity through the morning hours before day break. In the mean time, a weak surface low has developed over Lake Ontario in response to some height falls associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward across the Ottawa Valley. This weak surface feature will track across northern New York and northern Vermont this morning before the trough axis swings through the region this afternoon. According to the 00Z runs of the NAM, GFS and CMC, the best chances for rainfall across much of northern New York and northern Vermont may accompany the weak low that transits the region this morning while remaining mainly on the dry side this afternoon. With abundant cloud cover across the region today, we won't see a ton of heating with highs this afternoon topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This will support about 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE this afternoon which will be primarily focuses across southern and eastern Vermont. In addition, our deep layer shear (0-6 km) will hover around 30 knots which may be just enough to help a few thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon to become organized. Speaking of thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center has portions of central and eastern Vermont in a slight risk for severe weather with much of our remaining forecast area under a marginal risk for severe weather. The aforementioned shear and instability looks to be focused across Bennington, Windham, Rutland, Windsor and Orange Counties where a few strong to locally severe storms will be possible. The one thing going against the possibility of severe this afternoon across southern Vermont is our PWAT values will be increasing to nearly 2". This will yield moist adiabatic lapse rates in the low and mid-levels which should cap our overall updraft intensity. The best bet for severe weather will be a wet microburst or two as hail looks very unlikely given high freezing levels and weak lapse rates through the hail growth region (-10 to -30 degrees C). The weather quiets down this evening as the shortwave trough exits east. Drier northwesterly flow will allow for clearing skies through the overnight hours. This should help support some fog development given recent rainfall and light winds. Friday will be a nice day as the dry air leads to partly to mostly sunny skies across the North Country. We can't rule out a stray shower or two across the higher summits but chances look less likely than previously thought. Highs will be noticeably warmer on Friday with abundant sunshine with our afternoon highs topping out in upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure builds across the area for Friday night into Saturday with fair and dry weather expected. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs ranging through the 80s to locally near 90 in warmer spots of the deep valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Thursday...Models have backed off on arrival of potential convection for Sunday with ridge still holding firm. Widely scattered storms will be possible far north later in the day, though more organized convective threat appears to remain north of the intl. border per most recent global guidance. As such Sunday will largely remain dry and warm for most spots with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. By later Sunday night, and especially into Monday/Tuesday time frame a surface front will drop slowly south into the region with an increased threat of showers/thunder. Blended 30-50% PoPs will be offered through much of this period and with PWAT values averaging around 1.5 to 1.75 inches locally heavy downpours will be possible under quite humid conditions. After another warm day on Monday temperatures gradually ease back toward seasonal norms through the middle of next week as aforementioned frontal boundary sags south and a fairly decent longwave trough for late summer drifts into the region from central Canada. Some continued shower activity with this latter feature will be offered during the afternoon hours when lower- end instability interacts with weak, hard to time surface trough passages. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings prevail across the North Country early this morning. A 2500 ft deck of clouds is exiting the Ottawa Valley and will move into northern New York over the next few hours and should keep ceilings at KMSS and KSLK around 2500 ft through daybreak while much of Vermont with the exception of KMPV remaining VFR. Some light showers are moving through KMSS and KSLK at this time which will provide some light rain but no restrictions to ceilings or visibilities are expected. These showers will move into Vermont after 09Z and could bring some light rain to KBTV and KRUT but once again no restrictions are expected. We will be monitoring the convective potential this afternoon for southern and eastern Vermont where showers and thunderstorms look likely from noon through 6 PM. At this time, it's too difficult to get timing and placement of any individual thunderstorm but visibilities could drop to 2-3 miles under the heaviest storms. Shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off from west to east with 00Z looking to be a good end time for precipitation in eastern Vermont. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Clay