176 FXUS61 KRLX 230539 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 139 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front enhances the chance for strong, heavy showers and thunderstorms through Thursday, before pushing through Thursday night and Friday. Slightly drier weather for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM Friday... Lots of elevated convection out there this morning near the Ohio along an axis of enhanced moisture beneath weak ascent associated with jet dynamics. Would expect this to continue into the early morning before dissipating near/after sunrise. Have increased PoPs as well as thunder coverage to account for this. As of 1025 PM Thursday... Only a few temperature modifications this late evening. Convection expected to continue through the overnight, but upstream activity at this time is fairly isolated in nature. As of 750 PM Thursday... Made some adjustments to the POPs overnight based on rapid update models and trends in the radar upstream. Mild and humid overnight. Stratus formation expected as opposed to valley fog for now. As of 240 PM Wednesday... An upper level trough moving through the Ohio Valley region has been pushing several waves of convection across the area today. The first of these waves, has already exited to our east and currently the second wave is approaching the western edge of the CWA. This should bring another round of scattered showers and storms into the area through the evening. A few of the stronger storms may be accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts. Moisture remains fairly high and precipitable water values are in the 1.5-2" range. This indicates heavy rainfall may be possible with any convection this afternoon/evening and along the eastern half of the CWA there is a risk of excessive rainfall. On Thursday, the upper level trough will bring a front in to the area bringing another opportunity for showers and storms to develop during the day. These storms could bring more heavy rains and a few storms could become severe. Convection should begin to decrease during the evening as cooling begins. During the day tomorrow, temperatures should reach highs in the 80s throughout the lowlands and upper 60s-70s in the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 248 PM Wednesday... Surface front will continue to reside over the region through the short term but it will become less well defined with upper level ridging starting to build in from the west. The net result will be a continuation of showers/storms but they will become less numerous through time with a drier airmass trying to advect in from the northwest by Friday afternoon and night. Temperatures will remain very warm despite the attempt of an airmass change with highs on Friday likely warming back into the upper 80s to near 90 in the lowlands. Dewpoints will likely lower into the mid 60s allowing for a relatively comfortable night Friday night. In fact, Friday night looks like a good night for dense fog development with temperatures falling several degrees below river/lake temps after the recent warm weather so decided to go ahead and add in some patchy dense fog wording into the forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 248 PM Wednesday... High pressure appears poised to build into the region briefly over the weekend. Still enough moisture hanging around with a weakness in the ridge to our east so an isolated mountain shower/storm will be possible each afternoon, but most locations should remain dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be forecast to rebound back into the 90s in the lowlands but dewpoints stay in the 60s keeping afternoon heat indices manageable. Models are in good agreement in shunting the ridge back to our west for early next week as another longwave trough digs into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will force another surface front southward into the region renewing thunderstorms chances Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 750 PM Wednesday... Area of elevated showers/thunderstorms drifting east across the Ohio River Valley at this hour will potentially affect PKB/CKB/EKN this morning. Further south, weaker elevated showers and a few rumbles of thunder will approach CRW over the next couple hours. Heavy downpours will be possible with any of this activity briefly reducing visibility to 1-4SM. Activity should wane with sunrise with additional spotty storms developing early this afternoon across the moist warm sector. Will see a semi-organized line forming up this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Briefly clearing skies behind the front will allow for IFR stratus or possibly pockets of IFR fog Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm coverage/timing may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/23/20 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR stratus/fog possible Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/JLB NEAR TERM...26/JP/JLB SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JP