441 FXUS63 KDLH 221811 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Surface low pressure centered over northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan this morning will meander southeastward today. Wrap around moisture and cyclonic flow aloft will keep clouds and drizzle or scattered light rain showers in the picture through this morning. Clouds will be slowest to depart northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon hours. High pressure will build in from the north. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today with readings in the middle 60s in northwest Wisconsin and the upper 70s in north-central Minnesota, where the fewest clouds will be found. Continued quiet tonight and Thursday as the ridge axis slides east of the Northland. Southerly return flow will develop Thursday. Temperatures will trend warmer than the past several days with highs in the low 70s along the North Shore to the low 80s over north-central Minnesota. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 A warm front is forecast to lift through the region Thursday night and Friday. There is a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms on the nose of a low-level jet, which will veer into the central and north-central Minnesota after 06Z Friday. Storms will continue along the front as it lifts into Ontario during the day. Temperatures will trend warmer and southerly moisture transport will increase dewpoints and humidity across the Northland. Look for highs on Friday to reach the middle 70s in the Arrowhead to the middle and upper 80s from north-central and central Minnesota east into the I-35 Corridor. A few thunderstorms may percolate along a cold front over eastern North Dakota Friday afternoon and evening and may push east into our western zones Friday night and early Saturday morning. The front will lag to the west during the day Saturday and should arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Another round of thunderstorms is forecast, some of which may be strong to severe. Surface high pressure will move over the region Sunday and Monday. Sunday may be a warm one, as well, but humidity will be a bit lower with northwest flow behind Saturday’s system. Monday looks to be several degrees cooler with highs a few degrees either side of 80. An upper-level trough will propagate eastward through the eastern Dakotas and the Upper Midwest Monday night and Tuesday morning, which may touch off a few showers or thunderstorms. After the nocturnal showers dissipate Tuesday morning, look for dry conditions through the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Low stratus with a bit of embedded patchy fog still lingers across much of the region, especially at HYR. MVFR visibilities will be possible for the next hour or so at HYR, but visibility trends should increase as drier air slowly filters in from the northwest. MVFR ceilings will be likely at DLH/BRD/HYR early this afternoon with gradual clearing expected as clouds clear out from northwest to southeast. Winds have been a bit more blustery than models have been suggesting at DLH, with some occasional gusts between 15 and 20 kt with onshore east to northeasterly flow. This will likely continue into the afternoon, but gradually lightening up as high pressure builds into the area. The next concern is fog potential tonight. Short-range models are coming into agreement that many terminals will see several hours of fog late tonight, generally after 06Z. MVFR to IFR visibilities will be possible at times, particularly at HYR/DLH/HIB as high pressure develops over western Lake Superior. Fog will clear up after sunrise with VFR conditions expected Thursday morning with high pressure in place. && .MARINE... Issued at 1051 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Northeast flow is expected this morning and afternoon. Sustained winds of 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will be slightly stronger at 15-20 knots from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor, with Chequamegon Bay being the exception with lower winds across the bay. A small craft advisory is currently out for waters from Silver Bay to Saxon Harbor, excluding Chequamegon Bay. Waves are expected to be 3 to 5 feet in these areas, and occasionally higher, from strong winds across the open waters. Wind and waves are expected to decrease this evening and as winds become northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 64 50 75 58 / 60 0 0 20 INL 76 52 81 61 / 0 0 0 20 BRD 72 53 79 66 / 0 0 0 30 HYR 65 50 79 60 / 40 0 0 10 ASX 63 51 79 59 / 50 0 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001. MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ037. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ143>148. && $$ SHORT TERM...Huyck LONG TERM...Huyck AVIATION...JDS MARINE...Unruh/PA