728 FXUS64 KMEG 220036 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 736 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 .UPDATE... Cooling surface temperatures will lead to increasing CINh this evening though we do look to hang on to a fair amount of elevated instability throughout the overnight period. MUCAPE is progged to remain around 1500 J/kg overnight. The current crop of diurnal showers and thunderstorms will eventually dissipate over the next few hours with mostly dry weather anticipated overnight. However, a warm, moist environment won't need much to generate a few showers/storms overnight. Precipitable water is at or above 2" across most of the Mid-South and there is a weak disturbance lifting north across the Arklatex overnight. Ascent generated downstream of this feature may be enough to spring some additional convection overnight. Will keep an eye on this and may need to update PoPs further. For now, PoPs were extended a few hours from the current time and temps, sky, and moisture fields were adjusted to reflect current/anticipated trends. Like previous days, hot and humid conditions will prevail on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020/ DISCUSSION... Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Showers thunderstorms are found across much of the region this afternoon which have cooled some locations. As has been the case for the last few days, most of the current thunderstorm activity will die out by sunset leaving dry conditions for tonight through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be seasonably warm with lows Wednesday morning in the mid 70s. Wednesday will be pretty much a repeat of today's weather with thunderstorms beginning to develop in the late morning hours and continuing through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain seasonal on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will once again peak at between 100 and 105 degrees during the afternoon hours. The weather pattern really does not change much between Thursday and next Tuesday. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected each day starting in the late morning hours and continuing into late afternoon. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal through this period with Heat Index values remaining between 100 and 105 degrees each day. ARS && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs VFR conds will persist. A few lingering TSRA should diminish near MEM over the next hour or so. A single Hi-res model suggests light precip could track near MEM around 08Z, but did not have enough confidence to add to TAF at this time. South winds will remain light overnight and increase to 5-7 kts tomorrow afternoon. Carried a VCTS for scattered TSRA at all sites again for tomorrow. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$