278 FXUS64 KFWD 211719 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Wednesday Night/ Visible satellite and water vapor imagery show a large area of convection associated with a weakness in the mid level heights across southeast TX this afternoon. This little disturbance is on the western periphery of stronger ridging across the southeast U.S. and will allow rich Gulf Moisture to pool across the state through Wednesday. Scattered showers have increased in coverage across East Texas as we continue to warm and the uncapped environment will support additional development through peak afternoon heating. We'll continue to have the highest PoPs this afternoon mainly east of I-35 where the better moisture is located, but any location across North and Central Texas could see a shower or storm this afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, the strongest storms could produce some gusty winds along with very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Convection will be diurnally driven with a rapid decrease in coverage expected after sunset this evening. The pool of 2.2"+ PWs will mainly reside across East Texas through tonight into Wednesday as the weak upper disturbance drifts toward the Arklatex. While highest PoPs through Wednesday will again be tied to the better moisture, by afternoon with strong heating, we should see another round of scattered storms areawide. We'll have PoPs at 30-50% for Wednesday. High temperatures will generally be near or slightly below normal through Wednesday given the additional cloud cover. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 302 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020/ /Wednesday through Monday/ The Lone Star State will remain on the western periphery of the Bermuda High through early next week, resulting in hot and humid weather with scattered showers and storms across portions of the region every day. A deep fetch of Gulf moisture coupled with surface heating will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. It will be difficult to pinpoint the most favored area for storms since large scale forcing will be negligible, therefore, we will broad brush chance PoPs through sunset. The deep moisture Wednesday will also result in more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures with highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s. These cooler temperatures will go largely unnoticed since dewpoints in the 70s will keep afternoon heat index values near the century mark. Thursday should be slightly warmer (lower and middle 90s) with lower rain chances as the upper ridge builds farther west and large scale subsidence increases. We still can't rule out a few showers and storms across the far southeast zones in the late afternoon as a tropical wave in the Gulf approaches the Upper Texas Coast. Rain/storm chances will increase Friday and Saturday, especially across Central Texas, as the tropical wave moves inland. It appears that the best rain chances will be just southeast of the forecast area. Much like Wednesday, abundant cloud cover and deep moisture will keep temperatures a bit below normal, but heat index values will still be near or just above 100. Sunday and Monday should be slightly warmer (mid 90s) and still humid as the upper ridge intensifies just to the northeast of the region. We will maintain some low PoPs across the southeast zones both days to account for any afternoon storms or outflow boundaries that may approach from South Texas. 79 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Scattered/broken cumulus will continue through the afternoon although VFR cig heights are expected with continued near surface warming. Scattered showers have increased in coverage over the last hour and we should continue to see this trend into peak heating of the afternoon. We'll continue with a VCTS through this afternoon at all sites with any shower/storm activity diminishing after sunset. Abundant low level moisture will result in another round of MVFR stratus late tonight through late Wednesday morning at all locations. Southeast winds around 10 kt will prevail through the period. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 76 90 77 93 / 30 20 40 10 10 Waco 90 75 92 75 94 / 50 20 40 10 10 Paris 91 72 89 74 93 / 30 20 50 20 10 Denton 92 75 90 76 93 / 20 20 30 10 10 McKinney 92 74 91 76 94 / 30 20 40 20 10 Dallas 92 77 91 76 94 / 30 20 40 10 10 Terrell 91 75 91 74 94 / 50 20 40 10 10 Corsicana 89 75 90 75 92 / 60 20 40 10 10 Temple 90 74 93 74 95 / 50 20 40 10 10 Mineral Wells 92 73 91 73 93 / 20 10 30 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 91