314 FXUS65 KCYS 171759 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1159 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Fire weather concerns today followed by increasing chances for showers/storms this weekend. Currently...Low pressure tracking across southern Alberta Canada this morning. Cold front extends southeastward from the low into eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Winds have been on the uptick overnight with 19 mph sustained winds being reported at Casper and gusts to 30 mph at the Esterbrook RAWS site in the northern Laramie Range. UPR sites in Converse County reporting gusts in the 40 mph range. Humidity recoveries have been quite poor overnight. Wheatland CWOP site reporting only 16 percent with gusts to 30 mph. Given the strong winds ongoing and poor overnight humidity recoveries...decided to add northern portions of 309 and 310 into the current Red Flag Warnings for today. Southern portions of 309 and 310 may not hit criteria...but they will be close as well. Latest mesoscale guidance showing showers and thunderstorms developing near the Wyoming/Colorado border area after 19Z today...with coverage increasing through the afternoon. Not seeing a whole lot of instability with these storms...so do not think we will see severe storms this afternoon. Northern front begins to sag south into the CWA this evening with higher humidity and winds shifting to the northeast behind the front. GFS has the front into Cheyenne around 21Z Saturday...so this should help fire zones east of the Laramie Range from seeing critical fire weather conditions Saturday. Areas west of the Laramie Range though...likely to see gusty west winds and low humidity continue. Contemplated a Fire Weather Watch for FWZ 309 (south Laramie Range)...but decided to hold off. Looks like 3 hours of wind may not be there. Front stays stalled over southeast Wyoming through Sunday with better chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon east of the Laramie Range. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Temperatures closer to seasonal averages expected over the CWA this period though some warming late as upper ridging builds and passes by Weds and Thursday. Best chance for convection will be Monday and Tuesday afternoons/evenings as a couple shortwaves pass by and interact with some monsoonal moisture. Convection looks to become more isolated Weds and Thursday as the upper ridge moves by and moisture decreases a bit. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 The main concern with this TAF issuance is the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly across the KLAR and KCYS TAF sites. These showers and thunderstorms may produce some gusty and erratic winds up to 40 mph. These showers and thunderstorms should dissipate after sunset with light and variable winds expected overnight. The HRRR/NAM are both showing a frontal boundary moving through tomorrow morning. This boundary will be affecting most of the Nebraska Panhandle sites with gusty northwest winds at 20-25kts after 14z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Critical fire weather conditions today for parts of southeast Wyoming and northern Nebraska Panhandle. Low pressure tracking through Alberta Canada will cause winds to increase across the higher elevations of southeast WYoming. Very warm today with temperatures in the 90s across southeast Wyoming and near 100 degrees in the Panhandle. Afternoon humidity down near 10 percent will combine with these winds to create critical fire weather conditions late this morning through the afternoon. Could see near critical conditions again Saturday...but we do have a cold front sagging into the area from the northeast through the day. Winds switch to northeast and ease behind the front Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday into next week...especially along and east of the Laramie Range. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ301-302-309- 310. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ311. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...REC FIRE WEATHER...GCC