920 FXUS62 KTAE 171650 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1250 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conds will prevail over the next 24 hours. Convection will remain isolated this afternoon. With low confidence, will keep out of the TAFs at this time and continue to metwatch for amendments. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1014 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]... Deep easterly flow will continue today with mid-level high pressure centered near the southern Apalachians. Subsidence along the ridge axis, which transits our area, will lead to drier low to mid-level air. In addition, there will be a capping inversion, already shown on the 00Z JAX sounding just above 700 hPa. The ridging will help supress convection across much of the area northwest of I-10 and Routes 221 (FL) and 76 (GA). A perturbation in the deep layer flow should support a more active east coast sea-breeze compared to Thu, and this will propagate westward toward the lower I-75 corridor and the adjacent southeast FL Big Bend in the 20-22Z time frame. The cap should erode enough for convection, but rather dry sounding profiles should limit overall coverage. A more robust sea-breeze circulation in the Apalachicola to Panama City corridor could also result in some isolated convection, if the cap breaks. Patchy fog is possible early this morning mainly north of I-10, and again late tonight, when it could also develop in the southeast FL Big Bend, given the higher dew point air advecting in with the east coast sea-breeze across this area. Given the lower chances for precip today with PoPs below climatology across much of the area, went a couple degrees above guidance for the high temperatures, which will be in the lower to middle 90s away from the gulf coast, several degrees above normal. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the region. .SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Through Sunday]... In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Southeast. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the Southeast with easterly or southeasterly low-level flow. With a drier air mass in place, POPs will be fairly low at 10 to 30 percent tomorrow and 20 to 30 percent on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated. With fewer clouds, it will be very hot. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Southeast with southerly low- level flow. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated on Monday with POPs of 20 to 35 percent. POPs will be a bit higher Tuesday at 30 to 50 percent. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday and Thursday afternoons (POPs 50 to 60 percent) as low level moisture increases. It will be hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. .MARINE... Light to moderate winds will be easterly or southeasterly through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will be 1 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated through the weekend. A wet pattern will return mid next week. .FIRE WEATHER... High dispersion values are likely this afternoon, especially west of the Flint River into adjacent southeast Alabama, which may continue into Saturday. Patchy fog is also possible during the early morning hours. Otherwise, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the forecast period. .HYDROLOGY... Forecast rainfall totals for the next five days are less than one inch. Higher amounts locally are possible with stronger storms. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated until a wet pattern returns mid next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 73 96 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 30 Panama City 93 76 92 77 92 / 20 10 20 0 20 Dothan 93 72 94 73 95 / 10 0 20 0 20 Albany 94 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 10 0 20 Valdosta 93 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 30 0 30 Cross City 93 72 94 73 95 / 40 20 30 10 30 Apalachicola 90 77 90 77 90 / 20 20 20 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...McD