072 FXUS63 KICT 170732 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 232 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 A few storms have developed over southeast Kansas early this morning where mid-level warm air advection is occurring. Better coverage of storms over southwest Kansas look to spread northeast into central KS by early morning aided by modest low-level jet/moisture transport. A few strong storms are possible with gusty winds and heavy rainfall as the main risks. Hot and humid conditions will prevail across the region today with afternoon heat indices likely topping 105 degrees for several locations. Quiet weather conditions are expected tonight as moisture transport/low-level jet focus is well northeast of the area. Heading into Saturday it will be more of the same with hot and humid conditions and dangerous afternoon heat indices. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will push southward into northern Kansas for late Saturday afternoon/night as a upper level wave races eastward across the northern plains. Thunderstorms look to develop along the front which could migrate into parts of central Kansas Saturday night. Depending where surface front resides for Sunday storm development looks more widespread along the frontal boundary Sunday afternoon/night. The heat advisory could be expanded into Sunday for locations south of frontal boundary. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Long range models show more rounds of thunderstorms possible across the region Mon-Wed, as zonal to slightly northwest flow aloft keeps a surface frontal boundary in the area along with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime highs should be closer to seasonal averages for this period compared to this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period. Chances for widespread convection appear to considerably lower than the past few days, but opted to include VCSH at KRSL and KGBD around daybreak for remnants of High Plains convection. Increasing surface pressure gradient suggest gusty winds will develop by afternoon. Depending on surface winds in the evening, there is a potential for low level wind shear to develop at the end of this forecast. Will leave out for now, but there is a good chance it will be included with 1200 UTC issuance. -Howerton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 99 77 101 76 / 10 0 0 10 Hutchinson 97 77 102 74 / 20 0 0 10 Newton 97 78 101 75 / 10 10 0 10 ElDorado 96 77 99 74 / 10 0 0 10 Winfield-KWLD 99 77 100 75 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 97 76 101 73 / 40 10 10 20 Great Bend 98 76 102 74 / 40 10 0 20 Salina 97 79 103 76 / 40 10 0 20 McPherson 96 77 101 74 / 20 10 0 20 Coffeyville 96 77 96 74 / 20 0 0 0 Chanute 96 77 97 75 / 20 0 0 0 Iola 96 77 98 75 / 20 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 95 77 97 75 / 20 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ049- 051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDJ LONG TERM...CDJ AVIATION...PJH