915 FXUS65 KABQ 170004 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 604 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE With a healthy monsoon flow underway and a disturbance tracking northward along the AZ border, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to track northward and northeastward across all but far east central and southeast areas into the evening. Wet microburst will be capable of erratic wind gusts over 40 kt during the evening. Isolated and weaker showers and thunderstorms may linger over the western and northern mountains after midnight. Friday's convective coverage should look a lot like today's did with another disturbance tracking northward over western NM. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorm activity are expected for the next seven days, though the favored areas of convection will change from day-to-day. Much like today, storms will initiate over the high terrain and slowly move onto nearby lower elevations. After tonight, storm motions will be slow and heavy rainfall will be possible. Localized flooding is not out of the question, especially over burn scars. Temperatures will remain near to just above normal for this time of year. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... The monsoon season is finally underway as moisture streams north from Mexico into NM, thanks to a high pressure area centered in TX. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to blossom over the western and central mountains this afternoon, dropping into the valleys and northeast this evening. Storm motion will be fast enough to avoid much concern for flash flooding, with the possible exception of the more recent burn scars. Convection will diminish during the night, but showers could linger past dawn in a few spots. Friday will be similar to today with the west, central and northeast areas favored for more showers and storms. Storm motion will be toward the north in the western zones and toward the northeast across northern NM, perhaps a little slower movement. Highs will be near normal in the west and above normal in the east. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... The short story for the extended is that there will be continued chances for daily rounds showers and thunderstorms but the favored areas will change day-to-day depending on the upper high placement. The longer story is as follows: The upper high continues to be elongated from SoCal to the Carolinas on Saturday, though two weak high centers may be forming -- one near the AZ/Four Corners and another east of NM. A weakness between these areas, especially as seen at 7H, will allow for modest moisture convergence from SW NM to NE NM. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the high terrain, and likely move in various directions int he afternoon, such as most areas will have a shot at some precipitation. On Sunday, the weakness between the two high centers only become more pronounced, however a weak perturbation may lean the plume slightly more over the plains, thus an even better chance for precipitation across the east than on Saturday. Not a lot of change for Monday in terms of areas, but the plume looks to be a bit more disrupted, so coverage may be down a bit. The 5H upper high over the Four Corners should be a bit stronger as well. The 5H high shifts a bit farther east, over northern NM on Tuesday and weakens, then perhaps shifts briefly east of NM on Wednesday allowing for a better plume of moisture to advect northward into the state. Lots of uncertainty on the pattern beyond that. CHJ/34 && The monsoon season is finally in full bloom with moisture streaming north out of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and Friday afternoon and evening will favor the western and central areas into northeast NM. The high pressure to our east will begin to extend northwest this weekend and strengthen some early next week, centered near or south of the four corners region. This will leave much of the state in a weak trough, between the western and eastern highs. make storm motion quite variable, and certainly slow. Flash flooding will be more of a concern next week, especially over recent burn scars. The active pattern will continue later next week as the main high center sets up over CO with convection to the south of the high, including the potential for an easterly wave or two beyond the forecast period. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$