319 
FXUS65 KFGZ 152133
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 229 
PM MST Wed Jul 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather will persist across northern Arizona for
several days. Monsoon moisture looks to be confined to eastern 
Arizona through the weekend, with the greatest thunderstorm chances 
in the White Mountains, with only slight chances or no chances 
elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon 
across southern Apache county and north of the San Francisco Peaks. 
High res models suggest only isolated storm coverage through sunset 
then ending. Lightning and strong outflow winds will be the primary 
hazards. 

From Thursday through Sunday, we based the forecast on GEFS and 
European ensemble model output. These models suggest dry and warm 
conditions across western Arizona, and thunderstorm activity 
favoring the Mogollon Rim areas east of Flagstaff and the White 
Mountains. Wind speeds aloft are very light and are not favorable 
for a strong push of moisture into western Arizona. 

From Monday through Wednesday, it looks as if the high pressure 
center to set up along the AZ UT border, with the possibility of 
light westerly or northerly winds into our area. Thus we may see 
little change in the day to day weather for this period, especially 
across the western half of the state. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect mainly VFR conditions 
over the next 24 hours. Surface winds southwest 10-15 kts gusting 20 
kts through 03z. Scattered SHRA/-TSRA coverage over the White 
Mountains and isolated coverage elsewhere through 03z, then storms 
ending. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near thunderstorms as 
well as local MVFR conditions. Scattered thunderstorms are expected 
after 17z Thursday in and around the White Mountains. Aviation 
discussion not updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture looks to be limited to eastern 
Arizona through the weekend, with scattered thunderstorms each 
afternoon across the White Mountains and high terrain of Apache 
county. 

Elsewhere, expect above normal afternoon temperatures. Moisture may 
spread westward along the Mogollon Rim through Friday. There is a 
slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms each day for areas above 
5500 feet, but the more likely scenario is for dry and hot weather 
to continue. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM 
MST this evening FOR AZZ006.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff