373 FNUS53 KAPX 150733 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 ...Higher humidity with good chances for showers and some thunderstorms... .DISCUSSION...A cold front will work into nrn Michigan today, before dropping SE of the region tonight. This front will bring a broken band of showers this morning, before showers and thunderstorms become more numerous/likely this afternoon/evening with daytime heating and subsequent destabilization. A few storms may be severe, mainly from Missaukee county through Alpena county. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. Showers remain likely behind the front through tonight, a few of which may linger in NE lower into Thursday morning. Many areas of nrn lower, especially NE lower could see some renewed destabilization for a few more showers and storms in the afternoon, before relative high pressure moves in Thursday night. Light southerly winds will become highly variable with the front, and with lake breezes this afternoon. Light winds with a good degree of variability continue through Thursday, before winds back more out of the W/SW Thursday night. No significant wind speed or humidity issues. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-152015- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....82-87...except 68-73 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 67-72 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (140). Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.09-0.44 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely until 2400. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Chance of showers after 2400. Patchy fog after 2400. Min Temperature.....61-66. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.09-0.74 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until 1200. Max Temperature.....79-84...except 70-75 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........53-58 percent. 24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 18 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180). Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.13 in. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-152015- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of showers until 1200, then chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....87-92...except 70-75 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........39-44 percent. 24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph . Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Good (440). Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.44 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 2400. Min Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the north around 9 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.25-0.82 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until 1200. Chance of showers until 1200. Max Temperature.....81-86...except 68-73 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........51-56 percent. 24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except unchanged along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70). Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.15 in. $$ MIZ020-025>027-152015- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....77-82...except around 71 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........60-65 percent. 24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100). Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.36 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then chance of showers. Patchy fog after 2400. Min Temperature.....60-65...except around 70 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.43 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until 1200. Chance of showers until 1200. Max Temperature.....79-84...except 68-73 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........51-56 percent. 24 HR Trend......17 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (250). Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in. $$ MIZ031>033-152015- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200, then showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....82-87...except 73-78 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler. Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 73-78 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (150). Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.29 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then chance of showers. Patchy fog after 2400. Min Temperature.....60-65. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10). Mixing Height.......300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........0.16-0.45 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until 1200. Chance of showers until 1200. Max Temperature.....80-85. 24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer. Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 56-61 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......14 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Good (310). Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-152015- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....86-91. 24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer. Min Humidity........39-44 percent. 24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Good (420). Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.40 in. .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 2400. Min Temperature.....62-67. 24 HR Trend......Unchanged. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.41-0.75 in. .THURSDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog until 1200. Max Temperature.....81-86. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Min Humidity........49-54 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph . Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110). Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.14 in. $$ .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ SMD