792 FXUS61 KBTV 142338 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system over New Hampshire this afternoon will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to the North Country through this evening. The low will move far enough east later tonight for precipitation to come to an end. High pressure then builds in across the area on Wednesday for a relatively dry day and temperatures right around seasonal normals. Thursday will also be dry, but a cold front will move across the area Thursday night into Friday and this will be our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 733 PM EDT Tuesday...No big changes for the 730 pm update this evening. Have lowered pops as convection and showers have died down or moved out of our area. I've also expanded the mention of fog overnight based on saturated grounds in some areas and light winds. Previous discussion follows. Trend will be for convective threat to decrease through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Still looking at scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on the backside of the upper low over New Hampshire. As the low moves east dynamic support will weaken and lapse rates will gradually stabilize to limit any instability. Thus should see a noticeable decrease in convection after sunset and especially by midnight. Flow aloft is weak overnight and as skies clear we should see fog develop, especially in the favored locations of Vermont, where the bulk of precipitation has occurred over the past 24 hours. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday is looking warmer and drier as upper ridge gradually builds into the region. We still stay in northwest flow aloft for a better part of the day as ridge axis moves over us late in the day. As a result...we could see isolated showers develop over the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon, especially in Vermont. But overall most areas should remain dry with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The high builds right over the area Wednesday night for dry weather and relatively clear skies. Lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 346 PM EDT Tuesday...Area get into southwest flow aloft Thursday and Thursday night. Warm air advection will provide us with slightly warmer temperatures as highs get into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Moisture will be increasing and could see some showers or storms in the afternoon across northern New York, but with main cold front lagging back to the west and not moving into our area until late Thursday night the areal coverage of showers and storms will not expand eastward until Thursday night. This will be our best chance for more widespread rainfall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 PM EDT Tuesday...Cold front will be right on our doorstep Friday morning, and finally cross the area during the daytime hours. Not a lot of moisture with this feature, so think we'll see some scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms Friday. Still some uncertainty as to how strong the convection might be, ingredients are not lining up perfectly with stronger dynamics remaining north of the international border. Following cold frontal passage, a warmer air mass will move into the region with increasing southwesterly flow straight through the weekend. Warm and muggy conditions are anticipated. Chance for precipitation will increase later Sunday into the overnight and Monday with next approaching frontal system for early next week. Will come close to heat advisory conditions for Sun, Mon and Tue in the St Lawrence and Champlain valleys. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through about 06z with isolated showers ending and skies becoming mostly clear. This with light winds and low-level moisture from today's rainfall will allow low clouds and fog to form at KSLK, and KMPV and produce IFR to VLIFR conditions. After 13z the fog and low clouds come to an end and VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson/Hastings