048 FXUS65 KTFX 140912 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 312 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbance moves out of the region this morning, leaving Montana beneath clearing skies. Temperatures remain below seasonal averages today but warm back above average for Thursday and Friday. After that, a gradual cooling trend is expected through the weekend, along with an increasing chance for precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level low remains over central Canada this morning with northwest flow persisting across Montana. Residual cloud cover and some weak showers will move out of the forecast area early this morning as a dry slot wraps around the back side of the low and moves into the state.. This will leave the area beneath mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with no precipitation anticipated through Thursday. Temperatures for the remainder of this week start out below seasonal averages but warm well above average late in the week as short wave ridging builds ahead of the next system. The next weather system is currently a weak open wave in the vicinity of the Aleutian Islands. The wave will strengthen as the system sweeps southeastward through the Gulf of Alaska, reaching the Northern Rocky Mountain Region by late Friday. As has been the case for much of this summer, the upper wave is expected to stall out, leaving Montana beneath a relatively cool and unsettled northwest flow aloft. Diagnostic and ensemble models continue to indicate that temperatures will cool through the weekend, with the best chance for showers and a few thunderstorms expected by Sunday and possibly continuing into Monday or Tuesday. && .AVIATION... Updated 1153 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 (14/06Z TAF Period) Shower activity is winding down, but a few showers remain embedded in some low and mid-level clouds between KGTF and KHVR, gradually moving east. This activity should continue to diminish. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period, with some gusty afternoon W'ly winds across the central and northern parts of the CWA. -Kredensor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing runway closure. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 76 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 73 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 76 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 77 44 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 72 35 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 75 42 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 78 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 73 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls