362 
FXUS61 KBUF 140810
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbances will bring a few showers and 
thunderstorms today. Heat and humidity will increase through the 
rest of the week, with the best chance for widespread showers and 
thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level closed low over the southern Adirondacks will continue to 
push east today as ridge expands into the eastern Great Lakes. A few 
showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible during 
peak heating east of the Genesee Valley.

Any convection will end this evening leaving clearing skies 
along with patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A 500mb ridge axis and its associated surface high pressure will 
pass over the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night promoting 
dry weather throughout this timeframe. Also associated with this 
pattern, a southerly wind regime will allow for warmer temperatures 
to advect into the region causing temperatures to climb up into the 
80s, with the higher temperatures will occur across the lower 
elevations.

The 500mb ridge axis will depart eastward from the region Wednesday 
night, while a shortwave trough begins its traverse through the 
Lower Great Lakes. While it appears to remain dry through the 
majority of the night on Wednesday, as we head into Thursday the 
chances for showers and storms will gradually increase as a surface 
cold front encroaches and crosses over the area. Like Wednesday, 
high temperatures Thursday will warm up into the 80s, with the 
warmer temperatures in this range occuring the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage Thursday, the upper air 
pattern will become more zonally orientated with an elongated bubble 
of high pressure located over the southern half of the CONUS Friday 
and Saturday. This pattern will allow for a couple of dry warm days 
with highs climbing back into the upper 80s and low 90s.

The next chance for showers and storms enters the forecast Sunday 
and Monday the next shortwave approaches the region. Though even 
with these chances heat and humidity will continue to stay elevated 
with highs reaching the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy southern tier valley fog through 12z may result in MVFR 
conditions at KJHW.

Mid-level low over the southern Adirondacks will continue to push 
east today as ridge expands into the eastern Great Lakes.
For the most part, looking at VFR weather today, with only widely 
scattered showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorms for areas
east of KROC with brief intervals of MVFR/IFR within this 
activity.

Outlook...  

Tonight and Wednesday...VFR. 
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. 
Friday...Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak gradient will provide gentle to occasional moderate breezes
through Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Apffel/TMA