039 FXUS63 KGLD 112027 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 227 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are ranging widely from partly sunny to sunny. Slow moving frontal boundary has triggered a few rw/trw south of the Interstate with an eastward movement. There is also scattered high clouds moving thru portions of the northern CWA. Temperatures are currently ranging mainly in the 80s with a few spots around 90F. High pressure building off the Rockies is giving the region a N/NE flow, gusting at times up to 20- 30 mph. For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours, looking for any remaining showers to push east of the CWA before sunset, with surface ridge to our north transition east of the CWA by NNEnne wind regime to a southerly one for Sunday. Going into Sunday, strong upper ridge remains across the southern portion of the country providing a persistent downslope flow over the area, allowing for yet another hot day for the CWA. By the afternoon hrs, a shortwave is expected to traverse the northern edge of the ridge setting up along the Front Range. Convection is expected to form ahead of the trough from the late afternoon into the evening hrs before tapering off. Instability over areas from Hwy 27 and points west will warrant the mention of potential strong to severe trw potential. SPC has a Marginal Risk out as a result for the late afternoon/early evening time frame. Besides the wind/hail threat, PW values are ranging at least an inch during expected precip time, so locally heavy rainfall/ hydro concerns will have to be monitored. On Monday, a strong shortwave works east off the Front Range into the Plains region with a similar timeframe to Sunday's precip. Areal extent is much more than Sunday's and with better instability. Marginal/Slight risks are out from SPC, with areas north of Hwy 36 seeing best chance for worse conditions. Again, PW values will be high, so hydro/flooding concerns will have to be monitored. Possibly for convection to merge into a line late in the period, allowing for wind/hail threats to shift to more wind issues for the latter portion of the timeframe. For temps, above normal heat again for both Sunday and Monday with 90s for highs expected, warmest Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. note...any convection that does develop could locally impacted forecast highs/lows. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 140 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For next Tuesday on into the beginning of next weekend, the strong upper ridge which the models have carried across the southern Plains over the last few days if forecasted to retrograde as the week progresses, with some amplification into the western portion of the country by Friday/Saturday. Several shortwaves do traverse the northern periphery of the upper ridge during this time, giving the region the best chance at seeing precipitation, as each day some portion of the CWA will see the chance for rw/trw. A cold front traversing the region around the midweek timeframe will give the area the best chance for decent areal coverage for precip. Besides the expected wind/hail threats, PW values during the week will range between 1.00-1.50" over almost the entire CWA. This will bring up locally heavy rainfall/hydro concerns area-wide and will have to be monitored each day next week. A persistent westerly downslope flow thru the week with a shift to the NW by the weekend will guarantee most the extended for near to above normal high temps ranging in the 90s. The expected areal coverage of clouds/precip expected for Tuesday/Wednesday, along with the frontal passage will allow for slightly cooler conditions with 80s on tap. The overnight lows will be affected as well with 50s for Tuesday night, but transition back to what has been happening over the past several days with lows 60s west to the low 70s east. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2020 Both terminals will see VFR skies thru the forecast period. Winds for KGLD, NNE around 15-25kts thru 20z, then 10-15kts. By 01z Sunday, ENE around 10kts thru 04z then SE 5-10kts. Winds for KMCK, NNE around 10-15kts thru 04z Sunday, then ESE 5-10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN