552 
FXUS66 KEKA 111233
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
533 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather conditions will persist in the
interior through next week. Ocean breezes and marine air will 
keep coastal areas much cooler.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A transient trough moving toward the Pacific NW 
will bring another push of marine air and stratus to the North 
Coast today. Northerly winds should mix out the stratus this
afternoon, however new stratus may quickly reform near the
coastline by this evening. Stronger northerly winds will 
develop on Sunday, followed by an offshore flow pattern on
Monday. The offshore flow should reduce the coverage and
duration of stratus, especially for the Del Norte County
coast. 

Otherwise, interior locations will continue to see abundant 
sunshine today and for the next seven days. Northwest California
will remain between a transient upper trough over the Pacific NW 
and a sprawling upper level ridge centered over the four corners 
region today and Sunday. With 850mb temperatures around 22 to 24C
and a well mixed atmosphere, expect highs to hit the upper 90s 
in Lake, interior Mendocino and Trinity Counties today. Granted 
hotter valley sites will most likely peak around 100F to 102F 
degrees in these Counties. Westerly to northwesterly breezes this 
afternoon will likely limit temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 
90s in the valleys of Del Norte and Humboldt Counties. Temperatures
are forecast to fluctuate slightly with no significant change on 
Sunday. 

The upper trough is forecast to weaken early to mid next week
as an offshore surface flow pattern emerges for the northern most
portion of the forecast area. 850mb temperatures from 23C to 26C 
will start to expand northward on Tuesday and remain in place 
through Wednesday. Thus, Humboldt and Del Norte counties will 
start to warm up, with valley sites approaching the 100 degree 
mark. A warm up is also expected for coastal areas, with highs
in the lower to mid 70s. For Eureka, the record highs are 71F and
70F for Tue and Wed, respectively. There is a 54% chance of 70F 
or more on Tue and 71% on Wed in Eureka. For Crescent City, the 
chance of 70F or more is 76% on Tue and 90% on Wed. A southerly 
wind reversal may put a damper on the warming potential for the 
Mendocino coast on Wed.

Above normal temperatures will likely persist in the interior 
toward the end of the week, though it should start to moderate 
Friday and Saturday. Coarse ensemble guidance continues to 
indicate clear skies. Coastal stratus will form for sure. 

&&

.AVIATION...Stratus has finally redeveloped as of 3:30 a.m. along 
the Redwood Coast. IFR to LIFR ceilings and patchy fog are expected 
to persist along the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts this morning 
and should give way to mostly VFR conditions around midday as 
stratus dissipates. IFR to LIFR ceilings will return again tonight
at both coastal terminals. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail. 

&&

.MARINE...Mostly moderate to strong northerlies will persist over 
portions of the southern waters through the middle of next week. 
Additionally, some localized near gales will be possible downwind of 
Cape Mendocino this weekend. Small Craft Advisories are now in place 
for both southern zones for the winds and associated short-period 
seas. Northerlies will spread to the northern waters today as the 
pressure gradient tightens, but will remain below advisory criteria 
through Sunday afternoon. Went ahead and issued Small Crafts for 
both northern zones starting Sunday evening. Winds will continue to 
increase into early next week and become Gales over the northern 
outer zone by Monday evening. These gusty conditions will then 
persist through most of Thursday. A Gale Watch or Warning will be 
issued in the coming shifts as we get a little closer.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday for 
PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for 
PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png