094 
FXUS64 KLCH 092324
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...
For the 10/00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
With the loss of daytime heating, strato-cu across the forecast
area will dissipate with VFR conditions. The VFR conditions will
persist through the evening until late in the overnight, when low
clouds will again form, with the possibility of MVFR conditions
around sunrise. These clouds are expected to lift by mid-morning
with mainly VFR conditions again on Friday.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

Bottom line up front: It is going to be hot.

Model and ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a highly 
anomalous upper level ridge will build over the southwestern and 
CONUS this weekend. Ensemble guidance from both the ECMWF and
NAEFS indicates that upper level height standardized anomalies of
+2 to +3 sigma. The upper level subsidence downstream of this 
anomalous ridge will contribute to 850 hPa temperatures anomalies 
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley in excess of +4 sigma
through much of the weekend. This will translate to widespread
afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the
CWA this weekend. Meanwhile, light onshore flow will result in
dewpoints remaining in the 70s which will yield heat index values
of 105-110 degrees every day. Based on the high confidence in the
model guidance, Heat Advisories will likely be needed for most of
the area each day through at least Monday. Overnight temperatures
will not provide much relief with lows falling into the mid 70s 
and possibly not falling below 80 along the coast. Precautions
to avoid heat illness should be take through much of the upcoming
week.

During the middle part of next week, the upper level ridge is
expected to shift eastward into the southeastern CONUS.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal with highs in the
mid to upper 90s each day. Drier continental air should begin to 
filter into region and result in heat index values being slightly
less oppressive each day. However, heat index values above 100
degrees will continue to be common into the middle of next week.
This warm and dry pattern will likely continue until next weekend 
before a more typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection
returns to the forecast area.

MARINE...

Surface high pressure stretching west across the Florida 
Peninsula into the central Gulf of Mexico will result in light to
at times modest south to southwest winds through the rest of the 
week and into the weekend. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  95  75  96 /   0   0   0  10 
LCH  78  92  77  94 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  76  94  77  95 /   0   0   0  10 
BPT  79  92  78  95 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07