138 FXUS66 KMFR 091551 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 851 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .DISCUSSION...Satellite is showing some marine layer clouds across the Coos and the coastal portion of Douglas County this morning. These clouds are beginning to dissipate. Waiting in the wings (or at least offshore) is a bit of moisture denoted by higher level clouds. This will filter into the area as a weak trough moves ashore to our north today. This could bring some cumulus buildups on the west side and along the cascades today, but our silent 10% mention of showers/storms seems reasonable, and no changes to the forecast are needed. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...For the 09/12Z TAF Cycle...MVFR ceilings at coastal areas (mainly north of Cape Blanco and also far offshore south of Cape Blanco) are also resulting in terrain obscurations further inland. MVFR could also return to the Umpqua Valley early Thursday morning around or after 12z. But, this stratus is expected to dissipate after 16Z. Elsewhere, VFR will continue. Gusty NW breezes will develop at KMFR and KLMT Thursday afternoon/evening. -Miles/Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Thursday, 9 July 2020...Buoy data remains intermittent across the area due to a national data issue. It is being worked on, and will hopefully come back soon. Conditions will improve on today as the thermal trough moves inland. Light to moderate winds and seas are expected through early Sunday morning. The thermal trough is likely to return Sunday with rapidly building wind driven seas...especially south of Cape Blanco. These stronger northerly winds are likely to persist through early next week. -Schaaf/Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 429 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020/ DISCUSSION...With upper heights rising, and a deepening thermal trough along the coast bringing light offshore flow, the stratus is more confined to valleys closer to the coast this morning. A weak and dry cold front moves through the region today, bringing gusty winds east of the Cascades this afternoon. Models still indicate weak instability in the Crater Lake area and north, but mid level continues to be lacking, and by the time any cells that do build reach a region that has more mid level moisture to allow decent vertical development, they should be well northeast of the forecast area in the increased steering flow. The thermal trough pattern deepens quickly behind the exiting front with temperatures increasing to a little above normal Friday. A weak trough moves through late Saturday with gusty winds and low humidities ahead of it east of the Cascades. This trough will bring only a slight cool down Sunday. Temperatures then remain near normal into mid next week. Sven FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, 8 July 2020...Not much has changed since the last discussion was written (yesterday afternoon). The only concerns ahead will be Thursday and maybe Saturday. Details on these concerns will follow below. It will remain dry for the next 7-10 days with no major heatwave. Gusty winds are expected Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the Cascades, this includes fire zones 624, 625 and 285. The combination of wind and minimum relative humidity on Thursday is not expected to be enough to warrant a fire weather, so we will continue to headline because of the high fire danger in these areas. The main reason for winds on Thursday is due to a combination of a tightening pressure gradient and stronger winds aloft. The general consensus shows 700 mb winds between 15 and 20 knots. However looking further upstairs (600mb) the winds are stronger (between 30- 40 kts). Therefore, if winds from this level mix down, could lead to stronger winds at the surface. Saturday, winds aloft are not expected to be as strong, but relative humidity is expected to be lower than Thursday and it could be on the borderline of reaching critical concerns (Fire weather watch or Red Flag Warning) for the same areas as Thursday (624, 625 and 285). The good news is it's still a few days out which will give us time to monitor this closely. Winds will also be gusty in the Rogue and Applegate Valleys south and eastward to the Mount Shasta highlands, most notably over Siskiyou Summit into the northern end of the Shasta Valley. Thursday afternoon and evening and Saturday afternoon and evening, but were not expecting critical conditions. Other than the days noted above, no concerns are expected for the next several days. Recoveries expected to be fairly good at night for most, if not all locations the next several nights. Onshore flow will continue allowing marine stratus to return for most of the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco Coquille and Umpqua Basin. Temperatures will warm up Thursday through Saturday. Even then were only expecting them to be around 3-5 degrees above average for inland locations. Slight cooling is expected Sunday as a dry cold front moves through, then warming back up next week. The general consensus among the ensembles, individual ensemble members and cluster analysis remain the same and point to the same conclusion. A general troughiness remaining over the PAC NW. There will be times where the four corners ridge will try and nudge its way towards our area, but not enough to where it would bring significant heating for next week and a continued low or almost zero chance of precipitation and thunderstorms. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...None. $$