882 FXUS63 KJKL 090330 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1130 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020 Updated the forecast mainly to include the latest obs and trends for the Sky and T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a fresh ZFP to take out the evening wording. UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020 23z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern across eastern Kentucky, though this is overrun by mesoscale boundaries associated with the lingering convection. This convection is now winding down as the last storm rains itself out in Pulaski County but not before kicking off a new tower to the west of the CWA and leaving behind a healthy drenching of rain. Temperatures peaked in the upper 80s and low 90s again today only settling a bit early this evening - more so in places that saw storms. Dewpoints remain elevated in the upper 60s and low 70s providing ample fuel for the storms and high humidity across the region - also supporting heat indices in the mid to upper 90s at peak heating. Look for the pcpn chances to drop off quickly over the next hour or so with clouds diminishing, as well. One concern is the fog potential in places that saw rain from the storms - mainly through the Cumberland Valley. Have updated the forecast grids primarily to adjust the PoPs and Sky per latest trends and also to beef up the fog in the valleys late tonight - especially for those rain soaked spots. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. A freshened set of zones and HWO will follow once the convection is completely gone. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 505 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020 Summer remains intact across eastern Kentucky. Hot and humid conditions have set the stage for afternoon convection across portions of the area. Convection first started along the higher terrain where lift was more prevalent, but has become isolated to scattered across much of the area. As the sun begins to set, and temperatures start to cool, this convection will quickly cease. For overnight, once we've cleared out, a nice llvl inversion will set up. With clearing skies and light winds expected, expect valleys to drop off a bit compared to the neighboring ridges. This will also be a good set up for at least patchy valley fog. The only exception will be any locations that end up getting a pretty good dowsing from the rains this afternoon, which may add enough additional moisture to the atmosphere to lead to further fog development. More of the same is on tap for tomorrow. However, with high pressure still sitting across the region, temperatures will continue to modify a bit warmer. High temps will be in the low 90s, but with humidity, heat indexes may climb to near 100 degrees in many locations. This is not quite to our heat advisory criteria, but did at least warrant an SPS through the day tomorrow. Isolated to scattered afternoon convection will also initiate. However, with a continued lack of winds and organization, these will continue to be very pulsy in nature, with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the biggest threats. Convection should diminish overnight, but there is some guidance that suggests precip could continue into the overnight. Convective potential will be lost by late evening as we cool off, more than likely, so went ahead and just went with rain showers during the late night period. Could also still see some valley fog setting out outside of any ongoing showers that may persist. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 437 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020 Typical mid-summer conditions are expected through the middle of next week. Showers or storms will be possible on any day, but the most widespread activity will probably occur Friday into Friday night and again Sunday into Sunday night. Hot and humid conditions are forecast on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90, cooling slightly into the mid-to-upper 80s for Saturday through Monday. Temperatures warm back into the 90s for most locations by Wednesday. The model analysis, starting 12z Friday, shows upper level troughing over most of the eastern CONUS while ridging dominates over much of the west. Within the eastern trough, a filling cutoff upper level low is lifting northward along the Mid- Atlantic Coast while an a fairly robust vort max/shortwave trough are approaching from the western Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front as as it approaches eastern Kentucky Friday afternoon into early Saturday. The front stalls near the area on Saturday as weak shortwave ridging noses into the area. Another shortwave trough approaches the area Sunday and Sunday night and finally pushes the front south of the area. The western ridging shifts eastward with building heights from Monday onward as 500 mb heights rise to near an anomalous 600 dam by next Friday. Sensible weather should feature a rising threat for showers and thunderstorms on Friday along and ahead of the approaching cold front. This activity will diminish Saturday morning as heights rise slightly but redevelop Sunday into Sunday night as the second shortwave trough and the cold front finally push through. A warming trend then ensues for the new workweek along with the possibility for an isolated afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm. However, a capping inversion should limit most of this activity to the higher terrain closer to the VA border. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020 Now that the storms are dying out, VFR conditions will remain in place throughout the first part of the night, along with light winds. Any diurnally driven CU will dissipate heading into the overnight. Fog was generally confined to the valleys last night, so expect more of the same tonight, except for the spots that saw decent amounts of rain at the location or nearby like KSME and KLOZ. Allowed for a time of MVFR fog there later tonight through 12z Thursday. Tomorrow looks very similar to that of today, with VFR conditions and isolated afternoon convection - confidence in placement being too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will remain light away from any stray storms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JMW/GREIF