745 FXUS64 KSJT 082307 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 607 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ MVFR CIGs will be possible across the Northwest Hill Country between 10Z and 15Z, possibly impacting KJCT. Meanwhile, isolated storms across the eastern Concho Valley and Heartland, which could bring local IFR/LIFR conditions in brief heavy rain, should dissipate by 02Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to continue through 00Z Fri. S to SE winds will be generally around 5-8 KT through 15Z, then increasing to 8-12 KT with gusts to 18 KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Thursday) Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland counties this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail through tomorrow. Upper level high pressure will begin to strengthen over New Mexico and expand eastward across the forecast area tomorrow. Temperatures will increase as a result, with highs tomorrow in the 98 to 103 range. The low levels will still be quite moist, with afternoon dewpoints in the 60s areawide tomorrow. The combination of heat and humidity will push heat index values into the 105 to 109 degree range across the Concho Valley and Big Country, which meets or exceeds Heat Advisory criteria. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the this area tomorrow and extends into Friday, as similar conditions will exist. Elsewhere, heat index values will be in the 100 to 104 degree range tomorrow. Temperatures will be warm tonight, with over night lows in the 70s. LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Dangerous heat this weekend through the early part of next week... An strong upper level high will expand from the Southwest across Texas Friday through Monday. By the middle of next week, the high will become re-centered over the Ohio Valley, but will cover a large area with an extension southwest across Texas. With the associated subsidence, rain chances will be shut off for our area. With the airmass gradually drying out, the focus for dangerous heat will shift from heat indices to the actual air temperatures. We have issued a Heat Advisory for Thursday and Friday (1 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday), for the Big Country and Concho Valley areas. Heat Indices are expected to be 105 to 109 degrees across these areas durng the afternoon and early evening hours. Highs on Friday are expected to be in the upper 90s to 104 degrees. Highs on Saturday should be in the 100-105 degree range across West Central Texas, with a few locations in the Concho Valley and western Big Country exceeding 105. The hottest days look to be Sunday and Monday, when the 850mb thermal ridge will be the strongest across our area. Highs both days are expected to be 105-110 degrees. An Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for our area Sunday and Monday. Very hot daytime temperatures and dry conditions will continue through at least the middle of next week. With slight weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge by the middle of next week, highs should drop off a bit into the 100-105 degree range. Climate... Daily record high temperatures will be within reach at Abilene on July 11, and at Abilene and especially San Angelo on July 12-13. San Angelo Record Highs: July 12: 108 degrees in 1917 July 13: 108 degrees in 1933 All-time Record High: 111 degrees, set on 3 dates in July, and on 1 date in August Abilene Record Highs: July 12: 107 degrees in 1998 July 13: 108 degrees in 1933 All-time Record High: 111 degrees, set on August 3, 1943 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 76 102 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 74 99 72 101 / 5 0 0 0 Brownwood 74 98 74 100 / 5 0 0 0 Sweetwater 77 102 77 102 / 0 5 0 0 Ozona 74 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday for Callahan- Coke-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford- Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ 24/19/88