981 FXUS65 KABQ 082030 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 230 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... The heat is on across the Land of Enchantment and the trend is up, with record or near-record highs forecast for the rest of the work week and through the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the region. Although a slight chance for storms will enter the forecast late in the weekend and into Monday, good chances won't return to the forecast until at least the middle of next week when high pressure is forecast to shift east of the state. Until then, above to well above normal temperatures with some record setting heat will persist. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... An area of high pressure centered over south central NM has allowed for drier air to filter into the state with dewpoints this afternoon in the 20's and 30's across much of the area. The exception is across the southeast plains where dewpoints in the mid-40's may still allow for isolated storms early this evening with the HREF depicting some light QPF in Chaves and Roosevelt counties. Any activity that does manage to form in that area will likely be dry with gusty winds and little measurable precipitation. Otherwise, a quiet, but warm, night will be in store for the Land of Enchantment with low temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Some patchy smoke will be possible primarily in southern Socorro County as westerly winds blow smoke from fires burning in the southwest mountains into the area. The record-breaking heat continues on Thursday as the upper-level high, still centered over south central NM, strengthens to about 594dm and 700mb temperatures warm a couple degrees. Any lingering low-level moisture will continue to be scoured out, and dangerous heat will once again impact the eastern plains and portions of the RGV. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees across the east central and southeast plains while the Albuquerque area will be approaching 100F. A Heat Advisory is once again in effect for Thursday for portions of the east central and southeast plains. LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... 12Z model consensus position/height of the 500mb high by 00Z Saturday is at 600dam southwest of Albuquerque. The upper high should peak Saturday across the state, with the 12Z NAEFS 500mb mean heights showing in excess of +3 standardized anomalies across the southern half. This means record or near record heat persisting or expanding, with more Heat Advisories likely to be issued. The 12Z GFS is a tad more bullish on qpf Sun/Mon with a little moisture getting pulled into a weakening upper high, but we've limited to a slight chance for now. The heat wave will come to an end by the middle of next week as pressure heights trend down and PWATs trend up with the upper high retreating eastward. However, not before Albuquerque has hit 100+ for at least 5 days in a row. The record number of 100 degree days in a row for Albuquerque is 9 in 1980, but we should fall short of that by at least a few days. 11/15 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...WIDESPREAD RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HEAT COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... An area of high pressure will continue to build over the state, and very hot and dry conditions combined with high Haines of 5 and 6 will persist across the area through at least the weekend. Westerly winds today have scoured out much of the moisture, but some lingering low-level moisture may be enough to produce isolated dry thunderstorms in Chaves and Roosevelt counties this evening. Any lingering moisture will be scoured out by Thursday as the high strengthens. The high looks to reach its peak strength on Saturday with high temperatures reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A backdoor cold front moving into northeastern NM Saturday night may offer a chance of a few showers along the east slopes of the Sangres on Sunday, but confidence is low. The high shifts westward early next week which will likely keep the hot, dry weather continuing. 15 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Dry air moving into the state today will result in a sharp downtick in storm coverage. Enough moisture will linger to allow for isolated storms across far southeast NM although storms are expected to be dry with gusty winds. Elsewhere, gusty afternoon winds around 25-30 knots will taper off after sunset. Near to record breaking heat this afternoon with temperatures well above normal may affect density altitude. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 96 58 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 92 47 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 92 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 94 55 97 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 53 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 55 94 55 96 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 57 91 57 94 / 0 5 0 10 Magdalena....................... 65 94 66 96 / 0 5 0 5 Datil........................... 60 89 60 92 / 0 5 5 10 Reserve......................... 52 97 54 99 / 0 5 0 10 Glenwood........................ 67 102 67 103 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 48 86 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 65 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 91 61 93 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 89 54 92 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 49 80 47 83 / 0 5 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 45 84 41 87 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 52 91 50 94 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 55 90 54 92 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 62 97 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 63 92 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 95 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 98 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 100 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 67 102 65 103 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 102 64 104 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 65 101 64 102 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 66 102 64 104 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 65 101 63 103 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 68 95 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 100 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 72 103 71 105 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 91 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 66 94 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 61 95 59 98 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 96 55 99 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 63 94 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 63 94 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 63 91 62 93 / 0 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 58 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 57 95 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 56 96 56 97 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 58 93 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 67 97 63 96 / 0 0 5 0 Roy............................. 62 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 67 104 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 67 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 72 106 71 104 / 0 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 69 103 70 103 / 10 0 5 0 Portales........................ 72 104 73 104 / 10 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 105 71 105 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 73 107 74 108 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 67 99 69 102 / 5 5 0 5 Elk............................. 65 97 67 99 / 5 5 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ234-238. Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the following zones... NMZ234>238. && $$