747 FXUS61 KRLX 080641 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 241 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Heat persists with mainly diurnally driven convection. A cold front breaks the heat this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 AM Wednesday... River valley fog has started to form as the remaining isolated showers in the area finish dissipating out. Fog will continue to form, especially over those areas that received rain yesterday, as sky cover continues to clear out. The heat wave continues, with high temperatures well above normal in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s for the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s for the higher elevations. Low temperatures will also continue to be on the warmer side with upper 60s to lower 70s for the lowlands and low to mid 60s in the mountains. Heat index values will get up to the upper 90s in the lowlands this afternoon. Upper level ridging appears to hold over the area to the north as an upper level trough lingers to the south. Afternoon/evening convection will likely occur again during the heat of the day, leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly along the mountains. However, a slight chance does still exist for the lowlands. A surface low pressure system off to the south/southeast slowly begins to creep its way up the east coast, but will not affect the area quite yet. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... The upper ridge aloft keeping our area toasty for the past few days will relocate over the four corners region of the US heading into the short term, and that will translate to a more progressive pattern for the eastern third of the CONUS. Thursday will be the last day of the slow moving, low flow convection with the heat wave subject to initiation from the convective temperature, weak waves aloft, and residual/newly formed outflows. Heading into Friday, still have the potential for the heat for one more day, but finally get a well defined trough aloft/cold front pushing through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Likely to see a line of showers/storms with the front itself, and then lingering convection in the wake of the system into Saturday. 500mb heights drop back into the low 580s with a modest dip in the 850mb temperatures, but that should be enough to eliminate the widespread 90s for at least a couple of days. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... Expect another trough axis Monday providing the POPs maximum for the extended, and then drying out afterwards as the four corners upper level ridge expands its influence back into the Ohio Valley. After a brief and modest reprieve in the afternoon high temperatures for the weekend into the beginning of the work week, temperatures look to climb into the 90s again for the lowlands. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 AM Wednesday... A few isolated showers are still lingering in the area, particularly at CRW, and should dissipate out within the next hour or two. River valley fog has started to form at EKN and PKB, and will likely occur at CRW and CKB due to the rain received today at these sites. IFR/LIFR conditions will likely occur with this fog, dissipating out throughout Wednesday morning around 12/13Z. CRW's conditions will likely deteriorate once the rain ends at that site. VFR conditions should persist through most of the day tomorrow. The more western sites may have showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours, so VCTS is coded for CKB, EKN, and BKW for a few hours. In addition, if a storm occurs at any sites, IFR conditions could occur. Winds will be relatively calm tonight, and will likely be light and variable tomorrow during the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation may vary tonight. Timing and location of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/08/20 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M M L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L H M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible with valley fog in the late night/early morning hours each day except at BKW, especially if rain falls at the terminal in daytime showers/storms. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours each day. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, and in fog or stratus overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/CG NEAR TERM...CG SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...CG