612 FXUS63 KIND 062028 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 428 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 A warm and humid air mass will remain over Central Indiana over the next week. This will result in daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms along with above normal temperatures. The best chances for showers and storms may be on Thursday as an upper level weather disturbance will be passing through the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a very disorganized area of high pressure in place across the Great Lakes. GOES16 shows cu beginning to pop across Central Indiana. Dew points remained quite high...in the lower 70s. Aloft water vapor showed the main flow aloft in place across Montana and the Dakotas and into Ontario...well north of Indiana. Radar starting to show some diurnal tsra starting to pop. With little change in the overall air mass and pattern...a persistence type forecast should work well here. Will expect some sct-iso thunderstorm coverage to diminish early this evening as daytime heating is lost...leading to dry weather overnight. Will continue to carry at least low chc pops into the evening before tapering off overnight. Will stick close to persistence for lows. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/... Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Models continue to indicate the very warm and humid air mass across the area will continue through Thursday. Little in the way of upper support is expected within the flow aloft through Wednesday. However Forecast soundings on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons suggest ample CAPE over 2500 J/KG and pwats over 1.6 inches. Thus the daily routine of iso-sct showers and storms cannot be ruled out and we will continue low chance pops both of these afternoons. Given the little change in the overall air mass...will trend highs near persistence. The surface air mass does not change much on Thursday...however the GFS is now hinting at a short wave approaching Indiana by late Thursday afternoon. Should this hold...this additional forcing along with diurnal heating of the warm and humid air mass could result in more widespread showers and storms then. Forecast soundings at that point on Thursday surge to over 3000 J/KG of cape and pwats over 1.5 inches. Thus will trend pops a bit higher for Thursday given these features. && .LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/... Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Ensembles are in fairly good agreement in retrograding the heat ridge back into the southern Rockies this weekend, as long wave troughing develops over the eastern parts of the country. Appears the best precipitation threat during this period will be around Friday and Friday night, as a short wave trough drops southeast through the Great Lakes. Will keep PoPs in the forecast through Friday night to cover this feature. Forecast confidence is a little lower from Saturday on, as some of the ensembles suggest the better instability may get shoved off to the southwest in the wake of the short wave trough, resulting in a drier forecast for the weekend and on into early next week. For now, will keep some PoPs going in these periods, and monitor the trends. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 062100Z TAF Update)... Issued at 428 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Scattered showers and storms continue to pop up around the KIND airport and are moving little from where they develop. Thus left the VCTS mention intact. Boundaries moving through are likely to cause wind shifts and gusts at times this afternoon. Added a broken mid level deck based on latest obs. Previous discussion follows.... Widely scattered convection possible through the early evening hours in the vicinity of the terminals, given a very unstable, weakly capped air mass, and some weak positive vorticity advection. Brief IFR visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds possible in/near convection. CB bases around 040. Outside of convective areas, surface winds generally 170-200 degrees at 5-8 kts this afternoon will become light after sunset. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...JAS/50