877 FXUS65 KSLC 060943 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 343 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS...A warm and dry southwesterly flow will prevail through much of the week with fire weather concerns being the main hazard into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Thursday)...A broad, low-amplitude ridge extending from the southern plains through the desert southwest will bring another day of warm and dry conditions to the forecast area today. An upper level trough advancing into the Pacific Northwest late tonight will bring about an increase in southwest flow aloft over the Great Basin Tuesday. A weak, dry cold front associated with the upper trough will enter northern Utah by early Tuesday, then settle into central Utah late in the day. Dry, but slightly cooler temperatures will trail the front, with breezy and still quite hot temperatures south of the boundary Tuesday. The very dry, stable west-southwest flow aloft will persist across Utah Wednesday. Only looking at minor changes to temperatures from Tuesday, with warmer temperatures to follow in the long term forecast period. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...The story of the long term forecast remains largely unchanged from the past few days. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across a majority of Utah and southwest Wyoming through the week as we find ourselves under a building ridge with a trough to the northwest. A suppressed ridge over the Desert Southwest will begin to build over the forecast area starting late Thursday into Friday. As this feature strengthens, the increasing gradient between the ridge and aforementioned trough will likely allow for modest winds in the low to mid levels that will translate to breezy conditions at the surface once daytime mixing is able to establish. This trend is likely to continue into the weekend as the persistent trough remains to our northwest and the ridge continues to amplify. Concern for fire weather conditions lingers as extreme dry conditions remain in place through the week in combination with these breezy afternoon winds. Aside from the potential for extended fire weather concerns, temperatures across the forecast area are expected to remain near normal during the middle of the week, with above average temperatures arriving by the weekend. Southern Utah, in particular, could see temperatures rise to ~10 degrees above average by the end of the weekend, while areas in northern Utah will likely see daytime highs rise to ~5 degrees above average. Chances of precipitation remain low throughout the extended forecast, however, the deterministic GFS continues to favor the possibility of a mid-level moisture surge by the weekend (which may favor high based convection), while other deterministic guidance favor a dry forecast. Ensemble guidance seems to favor the latter solution, thus, have maintained minimal PoPs... but something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the SLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Southerly winds will remain in place over the airfield through ~18-19Z before becoming northerly thereafter. && .FIRE WEATHER...A developing upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest combined with high pressure centered over the southern Rockies will lead to continued low humidity and increasing southerly winds on Tuesday. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across southern and central Utah on Tuesday. A weak cold front will slip south through northern Utah Tuesday, then stall over central Utah by Tuesday night. Behind this front slightly lower temperatures with still low RH values are expected. South of this front humidity values will remain quite low with enough supporting winds aloft to bring a chance for critical or near-critical fire weather conditions Wednesday. Will leave the current Fire Weather Watch in place for now as some uncertainty remains as to whether winds will be strong enough over a wide enough area to justify a warning. A gradual strengthening of the southern Rockies high late in the week will further boost temperatures and keep humidity values low. Only looking at fair to poor recoveries at night during the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Winds at this point look to remain below level to create critical fire weather conditions. The only area of concern at this point would be with the southwest and west-central zones where winds could briefly reach critical levels by Friday and on into the weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for UTZ482-484-489-492>498. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for UTZ484-489-493-494-496-498. WY...None. && $$ CONGER/WEBBER For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php