239 
FXUS63 KOAX 051121
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
621 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Large scale flow this morning consisting of a shortwave trough 
crossing the northern Rockies. Meanwhile an upper level ridge 
prevailed over the central CONUS. Overall models advertise general 
troughing over the Pacific NW/northern Rockies while downstream 
ridge will see fluctuations of amplification over the next 
several days. 

Today through Monday

Models are in general agreement convection will ramp up late Monday 
morning over SD along a cold front slowly moving southeast. 
Thunderstorm activity is expected to reach the northern CWA then by 
Monday afternoon. With the boundary nearly parallel to flow aloft 
southward advancement will be hindered. Given this precip chances 
will be best over northeast NE. Models prog the boundary to pretty 
much remain in the vicinity of the NE/SD border Monday night thus 
remaining the focus for continuing storm activity.

Tuesday 

An amplifying high pressure ridge aloft over the 
northern/central Plains will translate to dry and warm conditions. 

Wednesday through Friday 

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible with the approach
of a shortwave trough. Ample moisture coupled with stout 
environmental instability will be in place Wednesday night to 
allow for a few strong thunderstorms to develop. Generous rainfall
accumulations will also be possible as storms intensify and 
expand in areal coverage with onset of low level jet. A cold front
originating out of the Dakotas is advertised to slowly meander 
over the CWA and be the focus for additional precip. 

Highs 

Today- upper 80s 
Mon  - upper 80s 
Tue  - low 90s 
Wed  - low 90s 
Thu  - low 90s 
Fri  - low 90s 
Sat  - low/mid 90s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

A mixture of smoke, haze, and fog has restricted visibilities to 5
miles or less at many locations over eastern NE and southwest IA 
as of 11z. Forecast soundings suggest that increased boundary- 
layer mixing should allow for improving visibilities by 14z. 
Otherwise, it does appear that SCT-BKN cumulus will develop by 
early afternoon at around FL035. Isolated showers or thunderstorms 
could materialize this afternoon. However, confidence in the 
terminal locations being impacted is currently too low to mention
in the forecast. Light and variable winds will increase from the 
southeast or south to 5 to 10 kt by midday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...Mead