678 
FXUS65 KFGZ 051010
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
310 AM MST Sun Jul 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather with above normal temperatures
this week. Breezy conditions will develop on Tuesday and 
Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As the strong ridge shifts southward into northern
Mexico the next few days, drier westerly flow will persist. Any
isolated shower or thunderstorm activity should be limited to the
White Mountains. Daytime temperatures will be several degrees
above normal through Monday with mid to upper 80s in the mountains
and 103-111 in our lowest elevation areas such as Page, Phantom
Ranch, the Verde Valley, and Black Canyon City. An Excessive Heat
Warning has been issued through Monday for the Grand Canyon below
4000 feet where the heat will make hiking very dangerous. For 
Tuesday into Wednesday, a trough over the northwest United States 
will suppress temperatures a few degrees and bring increased 
southwest winds. Near-critical fire weather is possible, 
especially for northwest Arizona.

Thursday into next weekend - models are in good agreement that
strong high pressure will build into the region. There are some
variations on the exact placement of the high, which impacts
whether some weak monsoonal moisture could flow into the state.
For now, most of the guidance has the center of the high near the
AZ/NM state line which would limit monsoonal flow. Our current
forecasts are dry outside of some low chances near the White
Mountains. Much of the temperature guidance indicates some of the
hottest weather of the year is possible next weekend and maybe
beyond, with 90s in the mountains and 110+ at the lowest
elevations. The last 90 degree temperature in Flagstaff occurred 
exactly 2 years ago today.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will continue over 
the next 24 hrs. Isolated afternoon -tsra with gusty outflow winds 
possible in the White Mountains region. Otherwise, winds becoming SW 
to W 10-20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warmer weather is in store today and 
Monday. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible over the 
White Mountains. Look for a Haines Index of 5 to 6 each day.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and warm weather will continue. A 
stray shower or storm will be possible across the White Mountains. 
Gusty southwest breezes are forecast through the period with near 
critical fire weather conditions across northwest Arizona on Tuesday 
and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning below
4000 feet elevation from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Monday 
FOR AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff