883 FXUS65 KABQ 042328 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 528 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high centered over se AZ and sw NM next 24 hrs. Wdly sct showers and storms west of the RGV with sct coverage east of the central mt chain. A few storms over the ern plains will be strong to svr with large hail and wind gusts to 50kt. Convection over ern NM to taper off aft 05/06Z with potential for an east wind at KABQ and KSAF aft 05/03Z. Convection to redevelop over the central mt chain and move to the se aft 05/18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into the evening across the Land of Enchantment. Main hazards include gusty winds, small hail, and brief downpours. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again Sunday and Monday, mainly east of the central mountain chain. Drier air moves in by midweek as high pressure centers over New Mexico. Hot and dry conditions will prevail through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... Crop of mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the divide will shift eastward this evening. Most activity after dark will be confined to locations east of the central mountain chain where at least isolated storms will continue until the early morning hours Sunday. Center of the upper-level high shifts nwwd to near the bootheel by sunrise Sunday. West winds on the northern periphery of the high result in drier air moving into the western half of the state. Isolated showers and storm will develop west of the central mountain chain but likely be weak and short-lived after entraining dry air. Favored area for afternoon showers and storms will be along and east of the central mountain chain as well as over the Tusas Mountains, southeastward to the eastern Jemez. Scattered to perhaps numerous storm coverage will favor the northeast quarter of the state late Sunday afternoon which are forecast to slide southward down the eastern plains during the evening hours. A few of the storms could become strong to briefly severe Sunday evening as they propagate southward through eastern NM. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... High pressure remains parked over the SW, with weakening flow aloft. The moisture axis pivots along the central mountain chain, creating the greatest chance of thunderstorms developing along the Sangre de Cristo's and pushing eastward. Meanwhile, dry air will intrude across the west, decreasing precipitation chances across most of the forecast area moving into Tuesday. NW flow aloft will help to enhance thunderstorm potential over the northeast and Sacramento Mountains, however chances will remain isolated as the high works to shutdown the moisture plume by Tuesday night. Models continue to depict the high elongating into Wednesday but have backed off on its strength, with some suggestion that moisture may reenter from northern Mexico. This return flow is short lived however, with the models all continuing to elongate and strengthen the high, thus diverting moisture away from NM. The ECMWF continues to be the more bullish on the high's strength, coming in at near 600 dm by Friday afternoon, with agreement in intensity from the CMC by Saturday. While the ECMWF parks the high over the SW, the CMC pulls it northward, bringing the possibility of moisture from northern Mexico into the Land of Enchantment by the weekend. Meanwhile, the GFS progs the high to eject east, pulling moisture from northern Mexico into AZ and western NM. In light of the disagreement, placed PoPs in the SW mtns and the southern portion of the Sacramentos for Friday. Regardless of moisture availability, the pattern is conducive to above normal temperatures. Downsloping and compressional warming will create temperatures above the century mark across much of the eastern plains, with the rest of northern and central NM experiencing temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. 33/12 && .FIRE WEATHER... While not an idealized monsoon moisture plume from the south, a monsoon pattern has set up with relatively long-lived higher dewpoint temperatures the rule mainly east of the divide. Some of the dry air over eastern AZ and far western NM will move in and result in less storm coverage west of the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon with an uptick in storm coverage forecast for Monday. Storms will favor the central mountains east through the remainder of next week with Thursday looking like a down day most places. High temperatures will remain slightly above average for early July. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$