932 FXUS61 KBTV 031356 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 956 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front draped across the area this morning will sink gradually south and west into tomorrow. Scattered showers and a few storms are possible along this boundary across mainly southern counties today with warm temperatures expected. Looking ahead, a typical mid summertime weather pattern looks to set up for the holiday weekend and into next week. This will feature warm to locally hot weather and occasional bouts of scattered showers and storms, most prevalent from Monday onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 948 AM EDT Friday...Fcst in great shape this morning and just sharing some observations based on crnt conditions and new model data. Low clouds/fog continues to quickly burn off this morning with cumulus clouds developing over the trrn as pockets of instability develop with LAPS showing sfc based cape values in the 500 to 750 j/kg range. Meanwhile, weak boundary is drapped from the southern dacks into central New England with inverted type sfc trof extending into from southern VT toward the NEK. This llvl convergence, combined with sfc heating, which will support CAPE values in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range, will help in the enhancement of showers/storms late morning into this aftn. Highest pops will be south of a SLK BTV to 1V4 line with frequent lightning, heavy down pours and brief gusty winds possible. The threat for svr while not zero is minimal so no mention of enhanced wording in fcst attm, especially given the weak shear values of 15 to 20 knots 0 to 6 km. We will watch any convection tied to the trrn closely, as some localized heavy rainfall is possible, given pws near 1.5 inches and mean storm flow is slow at 10 knots or so. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s with some lowering of sfc dwpts by this evening acrs our northern/central cwa, on northerly winds of 4 to 8 mph. Prior discussion... A weak frontal boundary currently draped northwest to southeast across the area will sink slowly south and west today before washing out later tonight into Saturday. Along the boundary scattered showers and a few storms are expected today with approach of an upper shortwave trough and where best instability and low level moisture convergence exist. Best coverage should occur across southern VT and southern Dacks with only isolated activity further north. Highs a tad cooler today, but still generally on the warm side - upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds light. Any early evening convection south should then wane and end into the overnight hours leaving mainly partly cloudy skies and light winds. Lows seasonal, mainly from 55 to 65 with some slight variability here and there. A nice day appears in store for the July 4th holiday under weak high pressure and relatively dry northwesterly flow aloft leading to a partly to mostly sunny day. Temperatures to top out very similar to today in the lower to mid 80s, perhaps a degree or so warmer under modest humidity levels. Winds light with PoPs close to nil. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Rather quiet Saturday night with chances of pre-dawn fog in the favored valleys. Sunday will be a warm and mainly dry day, save for a minor shortwave along the international border that may produce a few showers. An evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Broad ridging over the central US will keep general northwesterly flow over the CWA. This pattern will be disturbed by a series of shortwaves throughout the week, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Coupled with this will be hot and muggy conditions through the second half of the week. Temperatures look to be in the 90s with dewpoints being rather uncomfortable in the 60s and low 70s. Though the showers could bring brief reprieves, the back end of next could mirror some of the prior uncomfortable periods of weather the North Country has already experienced this summer. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 012Z Saturday...Outside a lingering mix of MVFR/IFR cigs at selected terminals through 14/15Z, mainly SCT/BKN VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL range expected today. Scattered showers and a possible t-storm at KRUT this afternoon in closer proximity to weakening frontal boundary, otherwise terminals mainly dry today. After 06Z a return of lower cigs to MVFR/IFR likely at selected terminals, especially KMPV/KRUT/KSLK along with areas of patchy br/fg. Winds generally variable less than 10 kts today with direction terminal dependent, trending near calm after 00Z Saturday. Outlook... Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...JMG