753 
FXUS64 KTSA 022335
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms may affect the northwest Arkansas sites 
for the first hour or so of the forecast period. VFR conditions 
will then prevail for the most part, with isolated showers and 
storms again possible just about anywhere during the day Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 219 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Cluster of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms continue to
push south this afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma
into higher instability axis. Damaging winds and very heavy 
rainfall are the main threats with this activity.

Behind outflow boundary, temperatures have cooled off significantly
and have therefore dropped heat headlines. Heat indices ahead of 
boundary remain in the 107 to 110 range. Additional scattered 
thunderstorms will be possible across far northeast Oklahoma and 
northwest Arkansas as cap continues to weaken. In the short term, 
generally followed latest HRRR guidance with convective line 
pushing into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Only limited 
chances for additional thunderstorm development is expected 
across northeast Oklahoma this evening given atmosphere has 
stabilized. 

Storms that are forecast across western Kansas tonight could form
MCV, rotating around periphery of upper ridge on Friday. This 
feature, coupled with diurnal heating will likely allow scattered 
showers/thunderstorms to develop across southeast Oklahoma and 
west-central Arkansas Friday afternoon. Storm chances will likely 
continue on Saturday, primarily across aforementioned area as a 
moist/unstable air-mass remains in place. 

At least low precipitation chances will persist through the early 
to middle part of next week as large upper high begins to build 
over the four corners region. Temperatures will remain near normal
with a slow warming trend into late week. Again stayed close to
NBM guidance through the extended periods. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ057-
     058-062-067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....05