087 FXUS64 KFWD 020808 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 308 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1138 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/ /Thursday and Friday/ Hot and humid with little chance for rainfall will be the main story for the next couple of days across North Texas. A dying complex of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing to the southwest of the region in the vicinity of San Angelo. This complex has steadily made southeast progress over the last few hours and should continue to do so as it weakens. Any stratiform precipitation on the northern end of this cluster should remain out of our area, but couldn't rule out some very light rain across our far southwest counties overnight. Otherwise, stout mid level ridging will prevail across the Southern Plains on Thursday keeping the hot weather in place. Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will result in southerly flow into Texas keeping low level moisture content high. Dewpoints on Thursday will once again remain in the 70s for all but our far western counties. Heat indices will again top out in the 104-108 degree range during peak heating. An axis of high surface theta-e air will steadily spread north today and could result in a few widely scattered showers/storm during the late afternoon. We think this would be mainly be across our western counties where we'll have some 20% PoPs. On Friday, the mid level ridge axis will shift westward just a bit, allowing northerly flow to spread into the Arklatex. Slightly drier air will spread into the western half of the CWA during the day as better moisture gets squeezed eastward. This may result in an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms across our far northeastern counties Friday afternoon. We'll have some slightly higher PoPs in this area to account for this. Dewpoints on Friday afternoon will likely mix into the lower/mid 60s from I-35 westward. Despite temperatures in the upper 90s, it'll feel slightly more comfortable. Humid air will remain in place across our eastern counties. Our heat advisory will remain in place through 7 pm this evening with no expansion into Friday expected at this time. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Holiday Weekend Through Middle Of Next Week/ A mid level impulse moving southward within broad northerly flow aloft across Eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks region will arrive into Northeast Texas Friday night. This impulse will continue its southward progress across East Texas and Western Louisiana through Independence Day and into Saturday evening. I expect a weakening MCS or cluster of storms may impact our northeast counties early Saturday and leave an outflow boundary across the northern counties during the day Saturday. The old outflow boundary will work in unison with another mid level impulse moving south across East Texas later in the day and act as foci for scattered storm development. Inhibition is expected to be relatively weak east of a retreating upper ridge across West Texas. Another weakening storm complex will drop south across East Texas Saturday night through the early morning Sunday with a similar outcome across the same areas. I have continued to lean toward wetter guidance across my eastern counties with all these factors being considered for the holiday weekend. Though showers and storms aren't expected to be severe or widespread on Independence Day, plentiful instability associated with the rich tropical environment in place and strong early July heating east of I-35 will result in a few stronger storms containing localized torrential downpours, gusty outflow winds, and more frequent cloud-to-ground lightning that could threaten outdoor events briefly late in the day and evening hours. If you plan on being outdoors or attending Saturday evening festivities across our eastern counties, be ready to have a safe place to temporarily duck into. Otherwise, I will continue one more day of above normal temperatures, particularly west of I-35 where the influence of the nearby upper ridge to the west will result in a few locales reaching the century mark for high temperatures. As heating is lost Saturday night, just isolated showers and storms may linger across areas south of I-30 and east of I-45. As for temperatures this weekend, I'll continue with one more day of hot temperatures, particularly west of I-35 on Saturday as the upper ridge continues retrograding toward the Desert Southwest states. High temperatures Sunday will be a few degrees cooler as subsidence decreases. However, instability and moisture will remain plentiful. Otherwise, the GEFS and EPS (GFS and Euro) ensembles indicate that the entire area will be under the influence of weak northerly flow aloft Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures will likely remain close to seasonal early July normals with the lower to mid 90s each afternoon. PoPs each day are tricky, so I held better chances to areas within the richer tropical moisture along and east of I-35. However, I am introducing at least slight chances further west. The bulk of daily convective activity will likely occur diurnally during peak heating, but I realize some isolated nocturnal activity may continue across East Texas after nightfall each evening. The upper ridge to our west will expand and strengthen across the South-Central CONUS toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys later next week. This will likely spell the end to rain chances with dry and hotter conditions returning to the area. 05/ && .AVIATION... /Issued 1138 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR should prevail through the period with the exception of some brief MVFR during the early morning hours. We'll have a TEMPO for MVFR cigs in the Metroplex from 13-16Z with prevailing MVFR at Waco. Similar to the last several mornings, this should scatter out by midday areawide. Southerly winds around 10 kt can be expected. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 78 98 78 98 / 0 10 5 20 20 Waco 96 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 5 0 Paris 94 76 94 74 92 / 5 10 20 40 30 Denton 96 76 97 76 96 / 0 10 5 20 20 McKinney 96 76 97 76 96 / 0 10 5 20 20 Dallas 97 79 99 79 99 / 0 10 5 20 20 Terrell 95 76 97 75 96 / 0 10 5 20 20 Corsicana 94 76 96 75 97 / 0 5 0 20 20 Temple 96 73 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 95 74 96 74 98 / 20 10 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-130>135-143>146-157>159. && $$ 05/91