997 FXUS61 KAKQ 011918 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 318 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low over New England will start to move offshore overnight, with surface high pressure building in from the northwest for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... This afternoon there is an upper low over the northeast with the trough axis roughly draped across the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, there is high pressure over the great lakes and weak low pressure over central NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage as expected this afternoon. Continue to carry roughly 40- 50% chance across the area through 00Z, and then back off to slight chance to chance from 00-06Z. MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg and sufficient mid level flow will allow some of the storms to be on the stronger side. SPC continues to have a marginal risk for severe weather today over most of the area. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Low temps tonight in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... The upper level low will move off the coast on Thursday, with the trough axis moving east of our area. Surface high pressure over the western Great Lakes will be in control, with N/NW flow aloft. To our south, a stationary boundary will be positioned over the Carolina's with weak low pressure off the NC coast. Most of the area will be rain free with just a slight chance of an afternoon or early evening shower/thunderstorm mainly over NE NC. High temps will be in the mid to upper 80s. High pressure will still be in control on Friday. Some weak energy to the north may sneak an isolated shower or storm to the MD eastern shore late in the day. Otherwise, the vast majority of the region will be dry and hot, with high temps in the low to mid 90s. Rain chances increase a bit on Saturday as a back door cold front sneaks into the region from the north. Carrying just slight chance to chance pops, mainly for the afternoon and early evening. High temps on Saturday in the mid 80s across the eastern shore to lower 90s inland. Low temps Friday and Saturday morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Much of the forecast late weekend into the first part of next week will hinge on the development of a low over the FL panhandle that will ride up the SE coast early in the week. While both the GFS and the ECMWF keep the bulk of the moisture to the east of the center, the resulting moist S/SE LL flow across our area will result in daily shower/storm chances Sunday through mid week. Temperatures remain seasonal with high temps each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and low temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will result in brief periods of flight restrictions when convection is over or near the terminals. Winds outside of convection are light and variable. Guidance is hinting at patchy fog overnight but mainly west of RIC, so for now will leave any mention of fog out. Mainly VFR on Thursday outside of a slight chance of convection in the afternoon/early evening. Drier conditions Friday, with VFR expected. && .MARINE... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... No headlines expected this week and into the weekend. Early this morning, weak low pressure was over the coastal Carolinas. Winds were SSW 5-10 kt, with waves 1-2 ft and seas around 2 ft over the waters. Winds will be variable 10 kt or less today through Fri night, as a couple of troughs will affect the area along with weak high pressure building into and over the region. NE or E winds 5-15 kt will affect the waters Sat aftn into Sun aftn. Waves will be 1-2 ft, and seas 2-3 ft today into Sat. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMF NEAR TERM...CMF SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...CMF AVIATION...CMF MARINE...TMG