249 FXUS64 KHUN 010200 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 900 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 A complex of storms has all but exited the forecast area, with lingering light rain over portions of northern Alabama. For at least the next couple of hours, expect mild conditions across the TN Valley, with temperatures generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another line of showers and thunderstorms was currently moving through northwest Tennessee and, based on current radar trends, should begin to enter the northern portion of the forecast area by midnight. As is typical in these types of setups, hires guidance is fairly inconsistent and has not initialized very well leaving very little confidence in those solutions. With that said, looking at the atmosphere over the area, instability has lessened with the passage of the previous storms and with no heating expected, the additional showers/storms should weaken some prior to reaching the area. However, we still have roughly 1500 to 2000 j/kg of CAPE in place, which will likely persist through the next few hours. So the storms should at least hold together as they make their way through southern middle Tennessee and northern Alabama between midnight and around 3-4 am. Can't rule out a strong storm or two, with gusty winds being the main threat. These storms will likely push south of the area, or completely dissipate, during the predawn hours leaving dry conditions in place around sunrise. Temperatures are tricky as they will depend on any additional activity moving through. But for the most part, expect lows to generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Another day of active weather is expected on Wednesday as the weak boundary pushes into North Alabama. There remains some question as to whether there will be widespread AM convection along the boundary, especially in areas east of I-65. Have a greater confidence that at least some convection will be ongoing and have kept likely PoPs in place for this reason. Regardless, expect a similar set up to today, with even greater coverage of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours, once the atmosphere destabilizes and convective temps are realized. Additionally, models are hinting at an MCS developing across the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley by early afternoon, potentially riding the boundary into the Tennessee Valley by the late afternoon into the early evening. Confidence is still low on whether this will materialize, but we could see a second wave of strong/severe storms into the evening should this come together. Expect coverage of showers and storms will diminish overnight as the boundary sags a little further to the south and west by Thursday morning. Still think that we'll see some decent coverage of diurnal convection, especially during the afternoon/evening, but the threat for severe storms will be lower as the better forcing will be displaced south of the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 The weak front will drop south into the Gulf Coast region for Friday, as a weak area of high pressure at the surface develops. this should result in a mainly dry day on Friday, with only a few isolated storms expected. Expect a gradual uptick in convection for the Fourth of July holiday weekend into early next week as a surface low develops across South Alabama/Georgia and drifts back to the north into the Tennessee Valley. The end result will be scattered to numerous diurnal convection each day and continued below normal temperatures due to the cloud cover and precipitation chances, with highs in the mid to upper 80s each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Ongoing showers and thunderstorms impacting the KMSL and KHSV terminals should move south of the terminals within the next couple of hours. Prior to the storms exiting, heavy rainfall will lower visibilities and create some ponding of water on runways. Additionally, winds within the storms will be variable and gust up to 20 kts. As the storms drop south by 01Z, conditions will become VFR and this trend should continue through the overnight hours with partly cloudy skies and light/variable winds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday, however confidence on exact timing is low at this time and will maintain the PROB30 from 12Z to 18Z. Beyond 18Z forecast confidence drops even further. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will increase from the southwest to around 7 kts after sunrise. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...73 SHORT TERM...AMP.24 LONG TERM...AMP.24 AVIATION...73 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.